Polls favor former PM Berlusconi's right-wing coalition

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It’s decision time in Italy. On Sunday, Italians will vote for a new government and new prime minister. The outcome is highly unpredictable.

No single party is expected to get the 40 percent needed to create a government. So parties have already started banding together in political coalitions to ensure their joint candidate gets the most votes.

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, now in his 80s, is back in the spotlight.

He’s heading a right-wing coalition that’s leading in the polls, and is positioning himself as a potential kingmaker.

It’s an astonishing comeback for a man whose political career is marred by sex scandals, serial gaffes and a tax fraud conviction that bans him from holding public office.

A worker prepares the stage prior to the arrival of Italy's 5-Star leader Luigi Di Maio at a function in Rome on March 1, 2018, where he is expected to present his would-be cabinet team ahead of elections on March 4. /VCG Photo

But with Italy’s election being seen as the next big political test for Europe in an era of resurgent populism, a win for a mainstream conservative who can keep Italy’s populist and far-right forces in check would be a surprisingly reassuring outcome for many.

There is no guarantee though that Berlusconi’s center-right party, Forza Italia, will secure the most amount of votes for the right-wing bloc and his coalition partners, the League and Brothers of Italy, are far-right parties who have made significant gains due to growing anti-migrant sentiment in Italy.

The League, headed by Matteo Salvini, has seized on the increasing frustration among many Italians and is pushing a nativist program.

Salvini’s motto is “Italians First,” and he’s pledged to deport the 600,000 migrants that have arrived on Italy’s shores in recent years.

He’s made it clear he wants to be Italy’s next prime minister.

But Salvini would not be Berlusconi’s first choice for the top job.

Berlusconi announced this week that he would propose Antonio Tajani, the president of the European Parliament, as prime minister if his center-right bloc secures the most number of seats.

Under a “gentleman’s agreement” between Berlusconi and Salvini, whichever party comes out with the most votes within the coalition will be named the next prime minister.