World Economic Outlook: IMF explains decision to lower global forecast
Updated 20:43, 21-Oct-2018
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02:05
The International Monetary Fund is detailing the factors behind its decision to lower global economic forecasts. The move comes after it cut the world growth outlook by 0.2 percentage point for this year and next year. Our reporter Zou Yun has the latest from the IMF press briefing in Beijing.
A gloomy outlook for the global economy. The IMF has lowered its forecast of world economic growth for both 2018 and 2019, from 3.9% to 3.7%. The organization says the downgrade was caused by a slew of factors, such as weaker performances among Eurozone countries, tighter liquidity in emerging economies. But even more significant are the escalating trade tensions among countries and the potential to shift away from a multilateral and rules-based trading system.
ALFRED SCHIPKE IMF SENIOR RESIDENT REPRESENTATIVE FOR CHINA "We have softer growth in export orders, this is based on survey data. Generally speaking, there's a more pessimistic outlook. We have a moderation in capital goods producing sectors, which ultimately led to a slow down in industrial outputs."
Growth in the United States and China were both estimated to be dampened by their ongoing trade tension. The IMF cut China's projection for 2019 by 0.2 percentage point to 6.2 percent.
But the experts from the IMF said they weren't concerned about the Chinese government's ability to defend its currency against further weakening. They believe that Chinese government would manage a "balancing act" between actions to maintain growth and ensuring financial stability.
On top of that, the IMF also said if China and the US were to resolve their trade differences, it would be a significant upside for the global forecast.
ZOU YUN BEIJING "China and the US are not the only countries suffering from the trade war between them. Economies all over the world are feeling the repercussions. The IMF calls for countries to manage risks and set up reforms, and build a global trade system that's stronger and fits better for the future. ZY, CGTN, BJ."