Following Donald Trump’s brazen tweet on Wednesday warning of missile attacks in Syria, many analysts, particularly in the non-Western media, are questioning the rationale behind the US President’s about-turn on his Damascus strategy just weeks after signaling a pullout of US troops from the war-torn country.

Trump’s decision was apparently triggered by an alleged poison gas attack in Syria’s opposition-held town of Douma, Eastern Ghouta, which the US has blamed on Moscow and Damascus even before a fact finding mission by the chemical weapons watchdog begins its investigation.

A panel of Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) experts started arriving in Syria from Thursday, and will begin their fact-finding mission on Saturday, according to a statement from the watchdog.

This photograph taken on April 12, 2018, shows a man as he looks at a computer screen in Moscow, displaying a web page, with a man waving what appears to be a Syrian flag in the Syrian town of Douma. /VCG Photo

Observers are already raising provoking questions about the timing, reason and the circumstances of the latest US threat, with many claiming the premise for the military action itself is based on a “false flag”, referring to Saturday’s Douma attack.

Trump’s warning preceded Syrian government’s recapture of Eastern Ghouta by a day, prompting Syrian President Bashar Assad to question the real motive behind the planned US missile strikes.

Exuberant after his Russian-backed army successfully ousted the rebels from their last remaining stronghold close to Damascus, Assad said: “Whenever the Syrian army achieves victory in the field, some Western countries raise their voices and intensify their movements in an attempt to change the track of events.”

A Syrian soldier sits next to a poster of the Syrian president at the entrance of the Wafideen Camp as they wait for the arrival of buses carrying Jaish al-Islam opposition fighters and their family members evacuated from the Eastern Ghouta town of Douma, on April 12, 2018. /VCG Photo

The Syrian President stressed that “any possible action” from the West will only destabilize the region and threaten international peace and security, the Iranian media quoted him as telling Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who visited Syria on Wednesday.

Russia questioned whether the imminent US missile strikes are aimed at destroying the evidence of “fabrication”.

“Are the OPCW inspectors aware that smart missiles are about to destroy all evidence of the chemical weapons use on the ground? Or is that the actual plan – to cover up all evidence of this fabricated attack with smart missile strikes, so that international inspectors had no evidence to look for?” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova asked on Wednesday in response to Trump’s tweet. 

Did the White Helmets 'stage' Douma attack?

A screenshot of the webpage of TheNewArab online portal reporting Russian claims that the Syrian chemical attack was 'staged' by White Helmets.

Both Russia and Syria have maintained that Saturday’s attack in Douma could have been faked with reports claiming White Helmets, a controversial civil defense voluntary group with close ties to the Syrian opposition groups might have “staged” it to trigger a US military reaction.

“It has become known to all that the chemical weapons pretext is an unsubstantiated flimsy argument to target Syria,” an unnamed Syrian official was quoted as saying by Syria’s state news agency SANA.

Meanwhile a senior Russian military official has alleged that the Douma attack was staged and filmed by member of the controversial White Helmets, which has been accused by Moscow and Damascus of supporting “militant” and “extremist” rebel factions in the Syrian civil war. The White Helmets have been repeatedly accused of spreading fake news.

“On April 7, probably the last attempt to stage a chemical weapons attack in Eastern Ghouta was made. The notorious White Helmets, who operate as part of terrorist groups, staged and filmed a chemical weapons attack on civilians in the town of Douma,” Russia’s Tass news agency quoted senior Russian military official Lt. Gen. Viktor Poznikhir as saying on Wednesday.

A screenshot of the webpage of Lebanon's Al Manar television reporting Syrian Army's discovery of White Helmets' filming site in Eastern Ghouta.

To bolster his arguments Poznikhir cited Russian chemical weapons experts and military doctors who, he claimed, visited the site within 24 hours of the alleged attack.

“Specialists of NBC (chemical weapon) protection have taken ground samples, collected fragments at the place of the alleged chemical attack and examined them. The examination showed an absence of nerve blocking and chlorine substances," Poznikhir said.

"Military doctors… visited the only hospital in Douma and examined the patients there. They discovered that no victims of warfare poisonous agents who were brought or treated at the hospital. The bodies of those reportedly killed from exposure to chemical warfare agents have not been found, either. The medical personnel and local residents have no information on the places where they could have possibly been buried," he added.

Lebanon’s Al Manar television reported that Syrian Army has discovered the site where the White Helmets is believed to have filmed the alleged propaganda videos in Eastern Ghouta.

Reporting on the same lines, Iran’s Fars news agency said the site is located in the small town of Saqba in Eastern Ghouta. The army personnel reportedly also discovered cameras and film production equipment left at the site, it claimed. 

Are 'scenes' being 'staged' for Western consumption?

British blogger and journalist Vanessa Beeley, who has constantly documented the links between the White Helmets and Syrian extremist groups while reporting on the Syrian crisis from the ground for the last few years, on Thursday dismissed the US claims of gas attack in Eastern Ghouta.

"There was no chemical attack. Am on the ground in Damascus & #EasternGhouta. No patients were admitted to local hospitals with CW poisoning, soil samples tested negative. Nothing substantiates claims of CW attack. Only #WhiteHelmet hoax movies, shld be investigated 4 child abuse (sic)," she tweeted, echoing the Russian military claims.

Allegations of propaganda have been routinely leveled against a range of international and local groups, including the government and the opposition factions, that are engaged in an armed conflict in the complex Syrian crisis.

An online Indian media watchdog NewsLaundry reported how Riam Dalati, a foreign news producer with the BBC, tweeted suspicion about the Douma attack saying he was tired of “scenes” in Syria that were “staged” for Western consumption.

The BBC journalist later deleted his tweet citing “breach of editorial policy” saying the tweet did not give context to the photos attached. Dalati, however, stood by his opinion that a photo about the Douma attack was staged. “Still stand by original opinion that ‘Last Hug’ was staged and can voice that in factual tweet if I want to,” he later tweeted.

Dalati isn’t the first journalist from the mainstream Western media to challenge the tilted narrative against Bashar Assad’s government. Earlier this week, Fox News’ Tucker Carlson posted a revealing tweet.

“All the geniuses tell us that Assad killed those children, but do they really know that? Of course they don’t really know that. They’re making it up. They have no real idea what happened,” he wrote.

'US allegations are just speculation'

This is also in sync with claims by a former CIA analyst, who told Russia’s RT that the US allegations on Douma attack are just speculation as Washington doesn’t have any intelligence assets inside Syria.

"On the ground the intelligence is non-existent, we don't have an embassy there anymore, we don't have any kind of official or formal presence there anymore, and... what the military collects remotely can only go so far," John Kiriakou, the former CIA officer-turned whistle blower, told RT.

"Unless you already have people on the ground who are reporting back and who you've cultivated over the course of years you are not going to get information," Kiriakou said, adding that it will be even harder, if not outright impossible, to find out who was behind the alleged incident in a post-factum investigation.

US Secretary of Defense James Mattis answers a question at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on April 11, 2018. /VCG Photo

A point proven, ironically, by the statement of US Defense Secretary James Mattis, who on Thursday said, “We're still assessing the intelligence ourselves and our allies. We're still working on this,” before adding "We stand ready to provide military options if they are appropriate, as the president determined."

Even British Prime Minister Theresa May, in her statement, used caution to declare “all indications point to” the Syrian government culpability rather that explicitly blaming Damascus for the alleged attack.

Amid the chaotic political rhetoric and military threats and in the absence of a fair probe, the chances of finding what really happened in Douma remain bleak. 

Is Saudi money behind Trump's Syria U-turn?

Meanwhile, there’s been a fair bit of speculation on the timing of Trump’s decision for a missile strike on Syria after he announced withdrawal of troops “very soon” on March 29.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman went on record at the time saying it wants American troops to stay “for at least the mid-term” saying a pullout would only help Iran. Trump had responded by saying Riyadh might have to foot the bill to keep US in Syria, The New Arab online news portal reported.

US President Donald Trump (right) holds up a chart of military hardware sales as he meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office at the White House., Washington DC, US, on March 20, 2018. /VCG Photo

With Trump’s missile threat against Syria coming just days after Saudi Crown Prince’s much-publicized US visit, when Trump boastfully claimed how huge US defense sales to Saudi Arabia is boosting American jobs, many wondered if Riyadh and Washington have struck a deal on US military action.

Speculations have further risen after Mohammed announced that Riyadh will take part in any military action being planned by the US and its Western allies including France and the UK. “If our alliance with our partners requires it (Saudi military participation), we will be present,” Mohammed said at a news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, concluding his three-day visit to Paris, which saw the signing of deals worth 18 billion dollars.

The idea that Saudi Arabia is willing to foot the bill for the US-led military action in Syria is not new. As early as in September 2013, two years after the Syria crisis began, the then US Secretary of State John Kerry went on record during a Congressional hearing saying the Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have offered to pay for US military action aimed at removing Syrian President Bashar Assad’s government.

“With respect to Arab countries offering to bear costs and to assist, the answer is profoundly yes,” Kerry told the hearing, “They have. That offer is on the table.”

While this piece was being written, Trump appears to be on the verge of another U-turn. Amid reports suggesting the US President is yet to take a final decision on Syria raids after Russia warned that the US move could trigger a war between the nuclear-armed rivals, Trump tweeted:

“Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”

Will this tweet be enough to draw back all the sides from the brink of a flashpoint? Only time will tell.

[Cover Photo: This US Navy photo obtained on January 14, 2015 shows the guided-missile destroyer USS Sterett (DDG 104) conducting a live-fire exercise with its MK 45 5-inch 54/62 caliber gun on January 11, 2015 in the Persian Gulf. Sterett is deployed as part of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group supporting maritime security operations, strike operations in Iraq and Syria as directed and theater security cooperation efforts in the US 5th Fleet area of responsibility. /VCG Photo]