116 goals, 48 matches, 32 teams and one long rest day later, the knock-out stage of the Russia 2018 World Cup is ready to begin. The 16 top teams that qualified have been seeded and will face each other in eight single-elimination games. This is where we get extra time, this is where we get penalties; this is where we get the real drama.

The first of these games is France vs. Argentina. Les Bleus came top of Group C with two wins and one draw and La Albiceste came second in Group D with one of everything: A win, a loss and a draw.

Based on the stats, it should be a fairly comfortable game for the French. Both sides have scored only three goals in three group games. But they at least have a +2 goal difference, having conceded once in their opening game against Australia.  Argentina have a goal difference of -2, in part from conceding in every game but mostly from their 3-0 dismantling at the hands of Croatia, a score line the French haven't encountered in over a decade.

And yet, as with all things in this World Cup, it's unlikely to be that easy. One trend that has manifested over the course of the group stage, it's a cohesive team is more important than big name individual talent: Germany's tragic fate is proof enough but consider that Portugal and Spain, whose clash on the first full day of games is still the highlight of the tournament, both had to scrape cheeky victories against Morocco and Iran, teams they vastly outclass but teams who play like teams instead of 10 men to facilitate Cristiano Ronaldo and Diego Costa.

Both France and Argentina can realistically only be called teams in the de jure sense. Coach Didier Deschamps has yet to find the Midas touch for his embarrassment of riches; every position contains a superstar but every one of them is playing like they want to be the one and only true superstar in the squad, leading to stodgy, almost passive-aggressive play and goal mouth action that's full of flair yet low on actual goals.

Argentina on the other hand has Lionel Messi, who tempted fate by finally acknowledging his status as the GOAT – short for "greatest of all time" or, depending on certain results "Cristiano Ronaldo" – and ten other men who can play football and were born inside Argentinian borders. For better and, in this tournament, worse, Messi is great at all forms out outfield play meaning he is always a threat but it also means that it's impossible for Argentina to construct a team around him, even though that's what they have repeatedly done and failed to find success with since his ascension to the national team in 2005.

Each time around, it feels like Messi and co., only with each passing tournament, the big players are getting too old and replacements aren't arriving. Consider that in their game against Croatia, their line-up included Willy Caballero, second string keeper to Joe Hart and Claudio Bravo at Manchester City and a bench warmer for current Premier League champions Chelsea, who only started regularly playing because of an injury to Thibaut Courtois, and Javier Mascherano has been sent to the knacker's yard at Hebei China Fortune in the Chinese Super League.

And yet, Messi's magic kept his team in the tournament. Everyone guards him, giving the rest of Argentina's XI room to play and his goal against Nigeria – his first of the tournament – visibly buoyed his, the squad's and the nation's hopes for success. Maradona was so overjoyed (among other things) that he had to be taken to hospital afterwards.

It's a hard game to predict, but the victory has likely already been given to the hands of fate by the coaches. Seeing the messes in front of them, it's likely that the winner will come from whoever out of Deschamps and Jorge Sampaoli can turn their eleven parts into one functioning unit.