Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the United States. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Thursday saw Republic of Korea President Moon Jae-in visit the United States and meet with President Donald Trump to inject life into a fragile diplomatic process concerning the denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), following the unfavorable ending of a summit in Hanoi the month previously.

Moon, an advocate of engagement with Pyongyang, sought to persuade the U.S. administration to soften its rigid approach to sanctions and offer a more flexible approach to negotiations. However, in the subsequent press conference, Trump moved to play down the possibility of such an early relief. Although speculating on the idea of some small “step by step” moves that could be made, he dismissed any talk of resuming inter-Korean projects and reaffirmed the necessity of sanctions in the view of obtaining what he described as "the big deal" - that is complete denuclearization, thus offering no change in the U.S. position.

With the White House continuing to insist upon an "all or nothing" approach to denuclearization, believing it can force larger concessions out of Kim Jong Un, prospects for diplomacy going forwards now lack a coherent strategy. Pyongyang's responses to these events have been to double down on a more resistant position.

Even if a return to confrontation remains highly unlikely, it is difficult where the next breakthrough is going to come from. Moon is likely to respond by attempting to approach Kim Jong Un again and kick-start the process, but owing to his inability to deliver anything to the DPRK and having his hands tied by Washington, he may find he is given the cold shoulder.

Moon Jae-in's approach to the DPRK nuclear issue might be described as that of an intermediary. He has persistently sought to secure peace on the Korean peninsula by establishing a dialogue between Pyongyang and Washington and then facilitating compromises.

For the first year, this policy had great success. Moon's efforts successfully convinced both sides to move away from confrontation and set the stage for unprecedented dialogue between Trump and Kim Jong Un.

However, Moon's "broker" position was always fragile. The optimism of the Blue House often glossed over what were deep and irreconcilable differences between the two powers. For one, Moon persistently claimed Kim was willing to denuclearize in accordance with American expectations fully, any analyst can point out that was never based in reality. Soon these differences would come to a crunch. Emboldened by hardliners, many in the Trump administration were not comfortable with the idea of offering pragmatic sanctions relief in exchange for partial denuclearisation efforts, nor did, of course, Pyongyang wants to surrender its entire nuclear capability to the United States.

Despite moves towards an apparent compromise beforehand, the gulf in expectations was thrown out in the open in the Hanoi summit, which saw a planned signing ceremony canceled in the end. Herein, Moon's initiative quickly fell apart.

The reaction of both sides to the disappointing event was in fact to harden their respective positions. Yesterday's meeting didn't change that. Washington continues to settle on "all or nothing" as its primary approach to denuclearization and appears to believe it has the leverage to force Pyongyang to eventually capitulate.

Nothing, however, on Pyongyang's side, indicates that. Instead, Kim Jong Un has toyed with the idea of resuming testing and engaged in a reshuffle of his leading officials, one which favors hardliners in the country. In tandem, Kim quoted that the country must pursue "self-reliance" in its economic development to “deal a blow to hostile forces”- far of course from giving in to American demands.

While this will not precipitate a return to confrontation, hence Trump's comments continued to emphasize goodwill and his “relationship” with Kim Jong Un, nevertheless it does pose the question as to where the next breakthrough will come from.

For Moon, this is a huge headache. When the two sides move further apart, he becomes stranded. What is most alarming for him is that there are no more incentives he can give Pyongyang at this time, as sanctions continue to block all meaningful forms of inter-Korean engagement. As Moon made promises on these projects, it is already resulting in condemnation from the North.

The Blue House, of course, is likely to attempt to approach Kim again to kickstart diplomacy, but Pyongyang has a history for refusing to listen to Seoul if they simply relay the American position without concessions, and given Moon has nothing more to give owing to Washington's rigidity. What more could he say? Therefore, he might find he is soon given the cold shoulder from Pyongyang.

Overall, today is another chance for progress on the DPRK issue gone begging. The result of the Trump-Moon meeting was no chance, he's coming home empty-handed. The blame should be squarely placed upon Washington's shoulders for its continued unwillingness to offer any compromises, despite overwhelmingly holding the upper hand

Pyongyang will inevitably suffer from upheld sanctions, but it is a country that has a history of being prepared to suffer punishment and pain in the short term in order to preserve towards its broader strategic goals in the long run. Expect little change for the time being.

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