Global Political Calendar: How will ANC do in South Africa elections?

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South Africa goes to the polls, a fresh round of China-U.S. trade talks begin, eyes remain on developments in Venezuela, and a cross-party Brexit deal is inching closer.

ANC back in SA?

South Africans vote in parliamentary and provincial elections on Wednesday, with polls indicating the African National Congress (ANC) will again win control of the National Assembly – but with a reduced majority.

President Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC is under pressure from the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters as well as a new set of smaller hardline parties – 48, more than in any election since the end of apartheid in 1994, are on the ballot in the national elections.

Ramaphosa, who replaced Jacob Zuma as president in 2018, has backed pro-business policies and cracked down on corruption, but revitalizing the economy has proved difficult and the ANC vote share has dropped in recent elections.

The expectation is that the ANC – in power for 25 years – will win a majority in the national parliament, but the scale of any victory will determine how Ramaphosa is able to govern and whether he is able to push through major reforms.

China-U.S. trade talks

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were in Beijing over the past week for trade talks, and Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead a Chinese delegation to Washington for the next round in the coming days.

The two sides have engaged in regular trade diplomacy in recent months in a bid to strike a deal that brings their dispute to an end after nearly a year.

Analyst Adam Garrie, writing for CGTN, argues both sides "appear to be quietly confident that many gaps have been narrowed and that an overall conclusion to the talks will arrive sooner rather than later."

What next in Venezuela?

Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido's attempt to bring down President Nicholas Maduro fizzled out over the past few days.

However, the U.S. is maintaining pressure on Caracas, amid speculation it could impose secondary sanctions on Venezuelan oil or even pursue a military option. Maduro, giving a televised address from a military base on Saturday, urged his troops to be "ready" for potential U.S. action.

The situation in Venezuela has drawn in other countries in the region and beyond. Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Venezuela with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Friday, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is due to hold talks with Venezuelan counterpart Jorge Arreaza on Sunday before meeting U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Finland in the coming days.

What happens next, and how the various involved countries act, will be closely scrutinized.

Cross-party Brexit?

After a terrible set of local elections for Britain's main two parties, the Conservatives and Labour, there's fresh momentum behind a compromise deal on Brexit.

The results from Thursday's polls – in which smaller parties backing remaining in the EU were the clear winners – were interpreted in different ways: Some saw them as a call for a second referendum, others as a sign of frustration at the state of UK politics.

Prime Minister Theresa May and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn decided the results were an indication they needed to do a deal and try to move beyond Brexit.

They will try this week to strike a compromise agreement on a customs union, though there's no guarantee Labour will sign up – it may prefer to wait until after European elections on May 23 – or that enough of the leaders' respective MPs would actually vote for any deal for it to win a majority.

Day-by-day

Monday: U.S. State Secretary Mike Pompeo begins a European tour by joining Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at an Arctic Council ministers meeting in Finland before heading to Germany, Britain and Greenland, Indians vote in the fifth phase of National Assembly elections, and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen begins a three-year prison sentence.

Tuesday: Northern Irish parties resume power-sharing talks in Belfast, the annual Conference on the Americas is held in Washington, and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire hosts a high level forum in Paris on debt.

Wednesday: South Africans vote in parliamentary and provincial elections, and the foreign ministers of Russia and Iran meet for talks in Moscow.

Thursday: EU leaders gather in Romania for talks on the bloc's future.

Friday: French MPs debate a law to accelerate the reconstruction of Notre-Dame cathedral, and the UN Security Council discusses Libya.

Saturday: Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage have been invited by Germany's far-right AfD party to address a media conference in Berlin ahead of European elections.

Sunday: A presidential election is held in Lithuania, and Indians vote in the sixth phase of National Assembly elections.