Kazakhstan election: Who will preside over post-Nazarbayev era?

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Voters in Kazakhstan will head to polls on Sunday to elect their first non-Nazarbayev president.

On March 19, the country's first president Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned unexpectedly after 30 years in power. He said the decision was "not easy" but he wanted to help "a new generation of leaders."

Less than a month later, his successor Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called a snap presidential vote for June 9.

Largest election

It will be the country's largest election since independence in 1991, with more than 11 million voters registered. In 2015, the number was less than 10 million.

There are 7 candidates, compared to just 3 in 2015, representing a wide range of political opinions and ideologies. They are Zhambyl Akhmetbekov, a communist, Amirzhan Kosanov a journalist and opposition politician, Toleutai Rakhimbekov, a scientist, Amangeldy Taspihov, a trade union leader, Dania Yespayeva, a female banker and Sadibek Tugel, a science editor, as well as the incumbent, President Tokayev.

Yespayeva is the first woman to contest the presidency in the country's history.

An opinion poll released on Wednesday shows that Tokayev is far ahead of the rest of the field.

It suggested Tokayev from the ruling Nur Otan party is likely to win 72.9 percent of the vote while the second-ranked runner, Kosanov from the opposition Fate of the Nation Movement party, will receive 7.9 percent.

The 65-year-old Tokayev was a career diplomat before becoming chairman of the senate. He has served as foreign minister twice and as prime minister from 1999 to 2002. He also served as deputy secretary-general of the United Nations from 2011 to 2013.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev speaks during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, May 29, 2019. /VCG Photo

The Central Asia oil-rich country's election which neighbors Russia and China is being closely watched by foreign countries, as 866 observers from nine international organizations and 147 observers from 41 foreign countries have been accredited as monitors.

Smooth transition

Nazarbayev, who will be 79 in July, was the longest-serving leader of a former Soviet country. He was re-elected five times and in the recent vote in 2015, he got 97.7 percent support.

Analyst Giniyat Issin told CGTN he doesn't think Nazarbayev's resignation was sudden as it was like a natural course of political evolution.

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Rumors of his resignation had already been swirling around in 2018. Issin believed Nazarbayev "has played his cards carefully" in preparing for a stable transition.

The expert also noted Nazarbayev will not retire from the politics and still be an "ultimate driver in total control."

He has given up the title of president but still retains power as Yelbasy (Leader of the Nation) and remains at the helm of the influential security council and head of the ruling party.

Issin also pointed out the new president has less power than Nazarbayev did as he has to report to the Yelbasy. Meanwhile, constitutional reform in 2017 has given parliament and the cabinet more say with regards to long-term planning, personnel decisions, and legislative initiative.

Former Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his successor and presidential candidate Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrive to meet ruling Nur Otan party activists and supporters in Nur-Sultan, June 7, 2019. /VCG Photo

Noting that Nazarbayev still enjoys high popularity in Kazakhstan, Issin said, "A majority of people will actually be happy with the transition." However, he noted some troubling factors still existing "because the people of Kazakhstan are now more politically active than ever."

Issin singled out the young generation who are raising up with their own voices and political slogans can create a big contradiction to the country's mainstream politics.

Diversity and freedom

Asked what could be the main challenges for the new president, Issin said economic issues are still dominant in Kazakhstan's domestic agenda.

The high-profile economic expert added the new president should not only dwell on the oil when developing the economy.

"When we saw double-digit growth etcetera, etcetera, we practically didn't have to do anything but extract the oil. But this didn't last long, we had a sharp fall of price on oil and now the economy has to be diversified."

An infrastructure on D Island, the main processing hub, at the Kashagan offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea in western Kazakhstan, August 21, 2013. /Reuters Photo

Issin also pointed out that corruption should be properly dealt with and more structural reforms put in place.

"There have to be more favorable conditions for small and medium enterprises, because currently what happened is that all assets of Kazakhstan are now in the grip of big state corporations."

Another major task for the new president, from Issin's perspective, is to convert Kazakhstan into a bigger international market attracting more foreign investment.

The analyst also said the new president should be aware of political challenges.

"Because I don't think that this is going to be viable for them (government) to keep things as they are now, to pretend that everything is like stable..."

Issin said the new president and government should understand the paradox that "in the country, the more freedom you provide to people, the more stable the country is going to be."