How will a populist anti-Trump president change Mexico?

World
Europe

07:27

Some 89 million eligible voters, more than 1,600 elected positions, and over 100 politicians who were killed in the nine months since the election period started.

The upcoming 2018 Mexican election will decide the successor to President Enrique Pena Nieto on July 1.

CGTN Photo

The front runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is close to victory, is expected to influence Mexico's development, the relations between Mexico and the US, and the still tough NAFTA negotiations, in the coming six years at least.

The US and immigration

Trump’s election in November 2016 changed the direction of US-Mexican relations, and the relation between the two countries is becoming worse with the chaos of Trump's "zero tolerance" immigration policy.

"Our dream, which we’ll achieve regardless of whether Trump accepts or not, is that the Mexican can work and be happy where he was born," said Lopez Obrador, dubbed Mexico's Donald Trump and is labelled as a populist, at a campaign event in the southern border city of Tapachula.

Mexico’s presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador during the closing rally of his campaign at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City, June 27, 2018. /AFP Photo

He stresses that he wants to broker a deal with Trump to stem illegal immigration through jobs and development rather than a border wall.

Anaya says his country must be a "moral authority" on immigration, treating Central Americans in Mexico as justly and humanely as Mexican immigrants would like to be treated in the US.

Read more:

History of the US – Mexico border

"We don’t know what to expect," said former US ambassador to Mexico, Roberta Jacobson, in an interview with the New Yorker.

Azucena Velasquez, a researcher at the Autonomous University of Baja California in Mexico says that, if Lopez Obrador wins, there will probably be more nationalist concerns in foreign policy, but there would be no other big changes.

Mexico’s presidential candidate Jose Antonio Meade attends the closing event of his electoral campaign in Monterrey, Mexico, June 27, 2018. /Xinhua Photo

Isabelle Vagnoux, a professor at Aix-Marseilles University, told France 24 that any aspiring presidential candidate in Mexico is necessarily hostile to Trump. "Donald Trump was not a subject for the campaign because there is a rejection of the US president across Mexico," he added.

NAFTA

The United States, Canada, and Mexico have been negotiating for months to rework the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which President Donald Trump says harms his country.

Lopez Obrador's pick for finance minister said he pledges "absolute support" for NAFTA, as negotiators edge closer to a deal to renew it.

Ricardo Anaya, presidential candidate for the National Action Party (PAN), gestures during his final campaign rally in Guanajuato, Mexico, June 27, 2018. /VCG Photo

But he has always said that he’s not afraid of withdrawing from NAFTA. Lopez Obrador's supporters think that Mexico has lost more than gained because of NAFTA.

Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said to Reuters that the only way the countries re-negotiating NAFTA will find a solution is through having the "sufficient flexibility" to narrow their differences.

Guajardo said US, Mexican and Canadian negotiators will be "engaging strongly" in July to reach an agreement that is “feasible, workable and benefits the three nations involved."

Domestic conditions

A worker of the National Electoral Institute (INE) counts ballots during the process of reception of the electoral material in the District 03 in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua state, Mexico, June 26, 2018. /VCG Photo

Lopez Obrador wants Mexico to be self-sufficient in foodstuffs and gasoline, two major resources imported from the US.

He proposed focusing on fighting corruption, eliminating social inequality, depriving the upper class of privileges, and freeing up funds to stimulate economic growth and promote employment.

Anaya wrapped up his campaign with a pledge to tackle corruption and poverty on June 24. "The Mexico we dream of is one in which there is no corruption, where the government behaves with honesty," Anaya said in front of thousands of supporters at his final rally in Mexico city.

A staff member moves flags at the close of the third round of NAFTA talks involving the United States, Mexico and Canada in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Sept. 27, 2017. /Reuters Photo

Meade proposed maintaining the economic policies of the past three decades, including deepening reform in telecommunications and other fields, and supporting the development of clean energy, and so on.

He also advocates reducing the income gap between men and women and supporting young people in their studies in order to obtain better employment opportunities.

"I hope, all Mexicans hope, that we will finally get a government that will actually work for the people, give us a chance to live a decent life, worthy of hard-working Mexicans," Roberto Vivar, a longtime resident of the United States deported five years ago, said to Digital Journal.

(Cover: Mexico's presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, standing for the coalition "Juntos Haremos Historia," waves to supporters during the closing rally of his campaign at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City, on June 27, 2018, ahead of the upcoming July 1 presidential election. /VCG Photo )