The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1987, once symbolized a de-escalation of the military tension in East Europe, was perceived as a truce pact ending the Cold War.
After 31 years, it seems the implementation does not go well between U.S. and Russia. The U.S. accuses Russia of violating it for years while Russia keeps denying. Now, U.S. president Donald Trump threats to exit the treaty, leaving Russia an ultimatum of 60 days to react.
From the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin regards the U.S accusation as merely a justification for leaving the treaty, while there is no evidence of violation have been provided.
John Sitilides, the geopolitical strategist with Trilogy Advisors, points out that there is notable violence observed by national intelligence in the U.S. The negotiation has been put forward since Obama administration, but Russia did not respond directly on the non-compliance.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (C) holds a meeting with Defence Ministry officials at Bocharov Ruchei residence in Sochi, November 19, 2018. /VCG Photo
On the other side, Pavel Felgenhauer, the Moscow-based defense analyst suggests there is ambiguity within the treaty, and the accusation is not stable. Though Russia can launch an intermediate-range cruise missile test with the same launching system, the tests haven't been made.
Though the facts about the violation may not be crystal clear, it is much more important that the negotiation and political bargaining have already begun since 2014. Therefore, Vladimir Golstein, the associate professor of Slavic Studies at Brown University, asserts that it is more important to focus on the particular occasion that Trump brings this up again on the table nowadays.
Aurel Braun, the professor of international relations and political science at the University of Toronto, noticed that Russia has always been meticulous about international law and institutions. The Putin's approach is being assertive and alienates the negotiations.
Looking realistically on the problem, China is the X-factor in the renewal of the INF treaty. John speculates that the other dimension of the problem is that U.S. is trying to bring China into the INF treaty. For the U.S., it is essential for China to abide by the INF treaty in order to maintain a balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region.
How to promote the treaty to a tri-lateral agreement among U.S., China and Russia? John answers that Trump may risk planting missile sites around the allies to deter China and coerce Beijing to join the table.
While on the other hand, Vladimir criticizes that this hard-line approach reflects the U.S.'s delusion of still being the top power in a unipolar world. He suggests that the unilateral way is old-fashioned and a multilateral way involving all great powers should be adopted when the countries are sitting down and acknowledging the multilateral reality.
Pavel worries about a no-treaty and a no-restraints situation in the future. As China is not likely to destroy 90 percent of its nuclear capability and deploying missiles in East Europe and in the Asia Pacific is not a possible action for the U.S. as well.
Delegations, led by Russian President Vladimir Putin (3rd R) and U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton (3rd L), attend a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, October 23, 2018. /VCG Photo
In a short future, the situation may be stable even without any restraints on nuclear missiles in the three countries, but in the further longer run, the case may get much easier to deteriorate.
To get countries on the table, the experts show similar ideas that people would not be willing to talk unless situation escalates - John suggests that it is worth to push harder for the United States to press on China and Russia.
And Pavel reviewed the European missile crisis and believed that the war-brinkmanship made both entities to sit down and negotiate at the 80s. Maybe the situation should get worse before it gets better. What we can do now is just to wait.
Opportunity for negotiation emerges in a mutual hurting situation of a brink, but brink is a threat itself. Is the world ready to take the risk of a war-edge in the future?
The Heat with Anand Naidoo is a 30-minute political talk show on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 7:00 a.m. BJT and 7:00 p.m. Eastern in the United States.
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