Trump could isolate US in coercing allies to form an anti-China alliance

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Editor's note: Ken Moak is the co-author of the 2015 book "China's Economic Rise and Its Global Impact," and he has taught economic theory, public policy and globalization at the university level for 33 years. This article reflects his opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

US President Donald Trump seems willing to risk allies' national interests in his trade and geopolitical wars against China. The first sign is a provision in the "new NAFTA", now called the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), requiring a signatory member (read Canada and Mexico) to give the other (read US) advance notice if it (or they) decide to forge a trade agreement with a "non-market economy" (read China).

Article 32.1 of the USMCA can be interpreted as a vile threat against Canada or Mexico because it allows the US to terminate the agreement in six months.

Another indication is US Vice President Mike Pence's speech at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, in which he denounced China as the "biggest threat" to US national security and calling on "like-minded" nations to join the fight. Since then US security organizations - Pentagon, FBI, and others - are parroting the same message.

US Vice President Mike Pence /VCG Photo.

His senior officials are busy traveling around the world, telling countries to be wary of China's "debt trap" diplomacy and "Fu Manchu deviousness". His speech is probably meant to rally allies and the US public in supporting the administration's battle against China.

However, history has shown that forcing countries to choose sides against an enemy over a perceived threat has consequences for all, including the bullying nation.

For example, the US lost over 5,000 lives and trillions of US dollars and possibly tarnished George W Bush's legacy in history over the Iraq War.

Tony Blair, the then British prime minister and the staunchest US ally in the Iraq War, was accused of misleading the Parliament and the British people. He was criticized in 2016 Iraq Inquiry for sending over 300 young British soldiers to an early grave in addition to helping the US kill and displace millions of Iraqis.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing the new USMCA trade pact between Canada, the US, and Mexico in Ottawa, Canada, October 1, 2018. /VCG Photo.

The war incurred tremendous losses of human lives and properties in Iraq, turning the country into a dysfunctional state wrought with sectarian fighting.

Invading Iraq and other countries with "fake news" was costly. Imagine what would happen if the US fought China with false or unsubstantiated accusations.

China is not Iraq

China is not Iraq and asking allies to fight China together with the US is equal to asking them to commit economic and geopolitical suicide. The most powerful ones - Japan, Australia, the Republic of Korea (ROK) - are dependent on China for their socio-economic well-being.

What's more, fighting China will be extremely costly in terms of human lives and property losses, given its large number of nuclear-armed missiles capable of hitting the US and its allies.

Perhaps having realized the potential consequences of allying with the US against China, America's close allies - Japan, Australia, and the ROK - are seeking rapprochement rather than confrontation with the Asian giant.

Japan has sent a large business delegation to China recently to mend ties with its giant neighbor. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going to begin his three-day official visit to China on October 23 to improve bilateral relations. The new Australian government is also said to be making a similar gesture.

India, too, is seeking rapprochement with China, working closely with its neighbor and fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organization member to promote multilateralism. What's more, it is defying US pressure by buying Russian weapons and Iran oil.

Nations, as the 19th Century British statesman observed, have no permanent allies or enemies, only national interests. Joining the US against China will definitely hurt their national interests.

For example, ROK decision to host the US THAAD system cost a retail conglomerate to shut down its lucrative Chinese market. One can only imagine what would happen if the ROK decides to go to war with China.

Is China as "evil" as the US portray it?

Whether China is as "evil" as the US government and neoconservatives say it is, depends on who is talking. But none of the US allegations can be proven, the latest one is a security analyst alleged that Chinese spies had planted surveillance chips on Amazon and Apple servers used by the US military.

A worker monitoring a soybean oil production line at the Hopeful Grain and Oil Group factory in Sanhe, north China's Hebei Province, July 19, 2018. /VCG Photo.

However, both companies denied the analyst's charge. What's more, the US Department of Homeland Security supports the two companies' denials, saying that there is no proof.

With regard to the other speculations such as China meddling in US politics and policies, they are also just that, speculations. Furthermore, for the US to accuse China of interfering in other countries' internal affairs is hypocritical.

The US has a history of meddling in other countries' political stances, bombing those who would not "toe the line" and bringing "regime change" to Libya, Iraq, and others.

Many in Hong Kong believe the US State Department-funded National Endowment for Democracy instigated, funded and organized the student-led 2014 "Umbrella Protest".

Alliance against China would not succeed

The US needs an enemy to justify huge defense spending and China fits the bill because it is "communist". With US manufacturing industry "hallowed" out, weapons development and production have become an essential part of the US economy.

China's State Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, October 8, 2018. /VCG Photo.

Trump is a symptom of US political culture, which is characterized by creating conflicts, arms selling and the establishment and the entrenchment of the military-industrial complex.

That is, Trump is not the first and will not be the last president to pursue the "America First" policy. But Trump is bolder than his predecessors by being open about it, perhaps with the exception of George W Bush who once threatened allies by saying "you are either with or against us."

However, pressuring "soulmate" countries into an alliance against China would not succeed. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is right, asking an ally to fight China is telling it to commit suicide.

(If you want to contribute and have special expertise, contact us at opinions@cgtn.com)