Will Theresa May's tactical vote delay work?

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Europe

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a UK-based political analyst. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Following a legal challenge by anti-Brexit campaigners, the European Court of Justice ruled on Monday that the United Kingdom can unilaterally cancel Article 50 and withdrawal from the European Union without the consent of other member states, should it so wish.

The ruling came almost concurrently to Theresa May's announcement that the vote in parliament on her controversial deal to leave the bloc would be delayed.

The timing was not a coincidence.

With the court decision now giving parliament the power to cancel Brexit via its own means, the Prime Minister has delayed the vote with the decision that can increase leverage over her party to push rebellious MPs into backing the agreement; presenting a choice between herself and opposition parties who could potentially overpower the government.

Pro-Brexit and pro-remain protesters demonstrate outside the UK parliament in London, December 11, 2018. /VCG Photo

However, given the widely anticipated failure if the vote went ahead, will it work? Despite the growing risk to Brexit itself, the chances nevertheless appear slim for the government.

Firstly, how was the European Court of Justice able to strike a blow to Brexit's chances?

The European Court of Justice is not a political body, contrary to widespread misconceptions, but it is a judicial organ which oversees the interpretation, implementation and enforcement of European level legislation and treaties.

It is a neutral body that is not under the control of any member state, leader, or the commission itself. Thus, its rulings are not always politically desirable.

In the case of Brexit, a number of Scottish politicians utilized Article 50 to launch a legal challenge arguing that the United Kingdom, or for that case any member who initiates leaving procedures, has the sovereign provision to unilaterally cancel the process of departure if they wish, regardless of what other member states may feel about the matter.

President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker (R) meets British Prime Minister Theresa May (L) in Brussels, Belgium on December 11, 2018. /VCG Photo

The court ruled in favor of the bid. Thus, at the level of the United Kingdom, because parliamentary authority was needed in order to activate Article 50, the same authority is consequentially able to cancel it.

Those who are opposed to Brexit are likely to feel satisfied with this announcement.

In theory, it means if all the opposition parties teamed up and a number of Conservatives follow through with their rebellion, Theresa May's deal can be defeated and a path to canceling Brexit outright could be opened up via a second referendum, whether the government likes it or not.

The options are thus closing down rapidly. In Theresa May's very own words, it is ultimately this Brexit or potentially no Brexit at all. Should the vote fail, the court decision gives anti-Brexiters political space to strike back against a no-deal by threatening to vote down Brexit as a contingency unless a second referendum is offered on the matter and the public consent to it.

Pressure is growing on Downing Street and the government is reduced now to having just one shot at the target of getting the current agreement through or capitulating to the new vote they have been determined to resist. As the EU has already said there are no alternative arrangements on the table, they have nowhere else to run.

Yet, the Prime Minister is determined to try and use this to her advantage. Guessing this court decision was coming, she has delayed the vote with the potential view she can use the threat of “no Brexit” to force her Euroskeptic rebels on board.

British former foreign minister Boris Johnson asks a question to Prime Minister Theresa May (not pictured), following her statement to the House of Commons in London, November 26, 2018. /VCG Photo

She can point out they want a cleaner Brexit, but if they aren't prepared to accept her compromise deal, then all could be lost. In other words, her deal is a necessary evil.

Will it, however, be successful?

Not likely. The legal situation of the Northern Ireland backstop appears to be a key sticking point that the most ardent of Brexiters are not prepared to accept the compromise on, fearing a division of the UK, a violation of national sovereignty and a risk of being trapped in the European customs union.

Thus, rather than stumble on with an unsatisfactory deal, many of May's critics are prepared to take a gamble of seeing the initial deal defeated, moving to oust the Prime Minister with a leadership challenge and ultimately risking another general election to end the parliamentary stalemate.

Boris Johnson for one is certainly aspiring to this outcome.

So really, Theresa May's vote may be a tactical attempt to salvage herself, but in practice, it can only really be described as delaying the inevitable concerning the imminent demise of her deal and potentially her premiership itself.

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