Biz Analysis
19:46, 08-May-2019
China to focus more on consumption, no immediate stimulus needed
Updated
22:13, 08-May-2019
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03:49
The Chinese economy remains resilient despite pressures from external uncertainties. Thanks to the better-than-expected economic data, J.P. Morgan thinks the Chinese government will focus more on the consumption measure, according to Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research at J.P. Morgan.
"China has a very strong first quarter of the year," Chang said, adding that no "immediate need" for the Chinese government to launch more simulative measures from the fiscal and monetary arsenal.
Meanwhile, Chang is upbeat on the Chinese economy for the rest of the year. J.P. Morgan has raised its growth forecast for China from 6.2 percent to 6.4 percent and she stressed, "I don't think anyone has yet changed the forecast."
But from her perspective, China-U.S. trade talks will be a big factor to influence the Chinese economy, and she added that markets are waiting for signals.
"They are waiting for how the next round of negotiation goes, looking for signals at the end of this week. And we think there is a very low probability that they are walking away from trade discussion. I'm not sure that all of the issues on the table can be resolved by the end of this week," she said.
03:21
The global central banks seem to stand at the dovish side. Chang estimated central banks of emerging economies will cut rates on average of 65 basis points for the rest of the year.
"We think, on average, about 65 basis points of policy rate cuts are in our forecast," Chang addressed.
But she expected that monetary easing policy would not be Fed's choice. "The market feels that the Fed will ease here, that's overstated. Given the GDP number in the U.S., you haven't seen much slower growth to happen. So I don't think easing is on the cards right now," she continued.
"I think the December sell-off and the extreme volatility actually show the central bankers that when you have low growth, the volatility matters more, so you have to follow the leaders with the Fed, the ECB," Chang said.