Why is Trump unlikely to hold back his tariff stick?

World
Europe

06:19

On Wednesday, the US trade representative followed through with higher tariffs on another 16 billion US dollars' worth of Chinese goods. So despite the efforts by all those who oppose the trade war, the train keeps chugging in the same direction.

I wonder, why is the Trump administration so adamant or wayward in carrying out a policy that’s clearly built on exaggerated or downright false information?

I am not saying China has been absolutely innocent in the whole thing. We can lower our tariffs more and faster.

There should have been more policies to level the playing field for domestic and foreign enterprises, and the pace of implementation should have been faster, etc.

However, the Trump administration have blown things out of proportion and even flipped facts into total falsehoods.

For instance, take the trade deficit issue, which has been the centerpiece of President Trump’s victimization efforts.

US President Donald Trump speaks at a dinner with business leaders at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, New Jersey, US, August 7, 2018./ VCG Photo

The amount of the deficit itself has been evasive and changing, maybe according to his mood. When he feels better, he makes it smaller, around 370 billion dollars. When he is more agitated, it can be 500 billion dollars. But the actual number is much smaller at around 270 billion dollars, according to the Chinese side, at best contested by both sides.

But you never hear from him that there could be some controversy here. It has to be huge, as it’s the starting point of his tariffs agenda. But it’s simply not so simple!

Now his claims that the World Trade Organization has been very unfair to the US? Bogus. Fact is that the US has won the great majority of cases it launched there. That China has been stealing US jobs? US multinationals and automation stole these jobs! That China has been forcing US companies to transfer technologies? A recent AmCham Shanghai report shows the majority of American businesses do not feel such pressure. The list goes on.

Now here is the question. When so many of President Trump’s complaints about China are based on shaky ground, and given that, according to recent polls, the majority of Americans oppose trade tariffs, why is his approval rating so high? In other words, why is he emboldened to keep gambling with such a controversial policy?

Protester holds up anti-Trump poster as 20-feet tall "Trump Baby" balloon, depicting the US president as an angry orange infant with a smartphone, flies above Parliament Square in central London. / VCG Photo

This is the question that truly baffles me and indeed many here in China. The Chinese authorities have accused the Trump administration of losing their collective mind. From their point of view, it’s dangerous to make misinformed decisions.

Clearly, President Trump knows what his voters want him to do: to appear tough on China and to appear to be doing something to bring back jobs. What really happens can wait, however, till after the mid-term elections and whatever other elections he has to win.

Basically, campaigning is his main job, other than governing the country. But why are people ready to vote for him if many of the things he says are simply lies? Are they all dumb?

Well, I came across a study by the evolutionary anthropologist Professor Daniel Fessler who shows that right-wing conservatives can be more susceptible than liberals to threats, even if they are false. Meaning, if a conservative sees a road sign saying “danger,” he or she is more likely to believe there is real danger.

President Donald Trump speaks at a rally to show support for Ohio Republican congressional candidate Troy Balderson on August 4, 2018, in Lewis Center, Ohio, US. / VCG Photo

A liberal, however, is less likely to believe so right away. Not because they are smarter, but because they are more likely to go and check whether there is real danger, whereas the conservatives in general lack the motivation to do so.

That explains, in part, why President Trump’s China bashing works for many Americans. Because his audience, many of them you see behind him on TV when he makes a speech, are ready to applaud him, even when he backs a candidate basically accused of pedophilia.

China-bashing is nothing compared to that. They will cheer, as long as what President Trump says is music to their ears, for the moment.

Research by other scholars has also reached similar conclusions. Professor of Psychology John Ehrenreich from the State University of New York pointed out that conservatives are more likely to believe in authority, whatever the authority figure says.

The loved and hated comedian Sasha Baron Cohen has proved to what extent this can be the case in his new comic series "Who is America?". When a state lawmaker drops his pants in front of the camera and wags his butt against his supposed enemy, you have to ask yourself, are these the people who are making laws for America? Are these the people who voted for Trump and continue to support his policy, whatever he says?

US President Donald Trump makes a comment about how hot the room is during his Make America Great Again rally in Olentangy Orange High School in Lewis Center, Ohio, US, August 4, 2018. / VCG Photo

I hope not! But I can only hope so. And actually, when I see the reality, I am a little bit less hopeful. Because another part of my above-mentioned studies also found conservatives are more likely to only listen to what they like to listen to, without challenging their long-held beliefs. They are watching Fox and reading President Trump’s tweets, and nothing much else.

Having said those, I must add that in the United States, there is a general lack of understanding about China and the motivation to find out about it. This deficit in understanding, in my eyes, is what’s really fueling the hype against deficit in trade.

Given such circumstances, it is unlikely that sense will be restored soon to US policymaking, with regards to China or to any other country in the world, for that matter.

Animation: Chen Shi