Why did Trump start a trade conflict with Mexico?

World
Europe

Editor's Note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the United States. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that because Mexico was not prepared to take measures to reduce illegal immigration towards the United States, Washington would be placing a tariff of 5 percent on all imports from the country which would, according to his words, "increase over time."

Again, the president made misleading promises that the measures would hurt their southern neighbor and, in turn, bring jobs and manufacturing back to the United States. Mexico City pledged to respond reciprocally to any levies implemented.

The announcement has been widely interpreted as a reaction to increased political pressure placed upon the presidency following the concluding remarks from Robert Mueller, which appeared to recommend impeachment as a course of action.

This may well be accurate. In light of this, as well as his failure to convince the Congress to fund his signature wall across the U.S. border, the president has opted to rally his base by unleashing a trade conflict against Mexico, unleashing nationalist sentiment by being tough against the country.

However, such maneuvers will not save Trump politically. It's a short term reactionary move dictated on impulse, which owing to the vastly more integrated economies between the two nations, will cause serious damage to the U.S. with nothing to gain from it.

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon attends a press conference at the Mexican embassy in Washington, DC, U.S., during his trip aimed at negotiating tariffs with U.S. officials, June 3, 2019. /VCG Photo

Fighting trade wars on multiple fronts will, in fact, isolate Washington and also weaken his ability to negotiate with China. Such a bizarre and unreasoned move is a display of desperation and weakness from the White House.

The concluding remarks of the Mueller report last week proved to be a bombshell development which saw several leading Democrats, including presidential candidates, call for the president to face an impeachment trial by the Congress.

Although Trump has not yet directly been attached to any wrongdoing and may not be, the broader narrative of Mueller continues to be a serious thorn in the side for him. The president is clearly suffering from it all; his endless tweets detailing his own innocence and accusing the Democrats of "committing a crime" do not display confidence.

In the midst of this Mueller saga, the president has also found himself politically in retreat on one of his core campaign pledges: immigration. As everyone knows, the president seeks to build a wall across the Mexican border which became the embodiment of his entire policy demeanor.

However, the Democrat House of Representatives sought to resist the measure, arguing it was an ineffective and a waste of money. A grueling government shutdown saw Trump give in and attempt to push through the barrier via a resort to national emergency powers, something now facing legal challenges.

Seemingly cornered, Trump's reaction to these developments has been not only distracted from the broader coverage against him but to also shore up his core support by pursuing a confrontation with Mexico.

Immigrants wait to receive a ballot for asylum hearings to enter the United States in Tijuana, Mexico, May 31, 2019. /VCG Photo

Although Trump's decisions in practice make no sense whatsoever, the symbolism of antagonism towards America's southern neighbor has a political appeal to it. In 2015, his initial comments against Mexicans were the tipping point which saw him sour in Republican primary polls. Consequentially, he hopes to get tough on the country through tariffs.

Unsurprisingly, however, it won't. The president's decision to suddenly slap tariffs on imports from Mexico is, at best, a reactionary, panic-induced and impulsive move which has no strategic, economic, or political benefit from it whatsoever.

Owing to geography, the economies of the two countries are much more integrated than that of the U.S. and China. The U.S. imports 371 billion U.S. dollars from Mexico and exports 299 billion U.S. dollars to the country, the latter being far more than what it sends to China.

This means the impact will prove to be catastrophic. The domestic political costs enormously outweigh anything he can gain from it.

Any economic decline in Mexico will additionally, of course, only increase than decrease immigration to the United States.

Furthermore, as Trump wages trade wars on multiple fronts, his ability to negotiate with China will also be reduced, with both Beijing and Mexico City likely to see mutual benefits in accelerating economic ties to offset the damage of Trump.

As a result, Trump's decision to pursue tariffs against Mexico is a sign of sure political weakness. Feeling that the walls are closing in on him, the president is opting for escalation, confrontation, and nationalist sentiment to attempt to make up for lost ground and rally his support.

However, such moves seem to lack any kind of strategic logic, long-term considerations or coherence. Should he choose this path against Mexico City, Trump will only serve to damage America's national interests on a number of fronts, oddly and ironically undoing many of his other goals in the process.

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