Trump, Mueller, Barr and the Democrat 2020 dilemma

World
Europe

The Mueller report into possible ties between the Trump 2016 campaign and Russia has been delivered, in redacted form, and issues emanating from it show no signs of disappearing.

But as Attorney General Bill Barr prepares to give congressional testimony on the report this week, Democrats wrestle with impeachment, and a slew of new stories – including the revelation that Robert Mueller wrote to Barr objecting to his characterization of the report – is the issue swaying voters and their view of President Trump?

Has Mueller changed minds?

A new attitudes survey from Monmouth University found that "Trump as president" was the biggest concern of just one percent of voters, 18th in a list of options headed by the costs of healthcare, taxes and job security – pocketbook issues remain voters' greatest worries.

That's not to say the Mueller report and its revelations haven't had an effect on voter attitudes as they weigh up options in the 2020 election, but it doesn't appear to have led to major switches – perhaps because many opinions on the Trump administration are already locked in.

While a Washington Post-ABC poll published on April 29 indicated that 36 percent of respondents were less likely to vote for Trump in 2020 following the release of a redacted version of the report and 14 percent more likely – a net negative impact of 22 points – 46 percent said Mueller's findings would not factor into their choice.

Given that Trump's job approval ratings barely shifted in the week after both the four-page letter issued by Barr on March 24 or the release of the redacted report on April 18, this suggests the changing sentiment was broadly among groups already opposed to or in favor of Trump.

The day Barr issued his letter Trump's net negative approval rating of 10.8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight's tracker of all publicly available polls, and one week later it was again at negative 10.8. The day the redacted report was released the president's net negative approval was up to 11 points, and one week later it had skipped up by under one point to 11.8.

And the Washington Post-ABC poll indicated the percentage of voters who would definitely vote for Trump in 2020 (28 percent) was unchanged between January 24 and April 24, after the redacted report was released. The number of Americans who would definitely not vote for Trump – who won the 2016 election with 46.1 percent – dropped one point from 56 percent to 55.

The headline numbers have changed very little since Mueller delivered his report to Barr in mid-March.

What should Democrats do?

The Washington Post-ABC poll gave Democrats a one-point base lead, with 29 percent of respondents saying they would definitely vote for the party's candidate. But the debate over whether the Democrats should pursue impeachment has intensified since the release of the report, and left leaders and 2020 hopefuls in a tough spot.

Many senior Democrats who said they would wait until the publication of the report before deciding whether to pursue impeachment proceedings, now say further investigations should be carried out in Congress before a decision is made. This puts the leadership at odds with both some newly-elected members and a majority of the Democratic base.

The Washington Post-ABC poll reveals the tightrope Democrats are treading: 53 percent of party supporters "strongly" back starting impeachment proceedings, but independents – a key constituency in the 2020 election – are increasingly opposed with six in 10 now against.

Talking tough on impeachment might go down well with the primary electorate, but would likely have to be walked back in the general election to win over centrist voters. Overall, the poll suggests a majority of Americans – 56 percent – oppose impeachment, with 37 percent in favor.

And to date most of the contenders for the Democratic nomination are treading a fine line of condemning Trump – the Washington Post-ABC poll suggests 47 percent of Americans believe Trump did try to obstruct the special counsel's investigation, while 41 say he did not – and calling for congressional probes to continue, without urging for the president to be impeached.

Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have unequivocally called for proceedings to begin, but frontrunner Joe Biden is one of the many contenders to have kept his feet firmly on the fence so far.

The temptation for Democratic candidates to take a harder line on impeachment – particularly those in need of a polling boost – could be intense over the coming weeks and months.