Experts: Soy alternatives could reduce imports 'by 10 million tons'

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Widespread adoption of alternative animal feeds and increased domestic soy production could see China reduce its soybean imports by more than 10 million tons this year, according to several analysts.

China could source alternative animal feeds from crops such as rapeseed, sunflower meal and palm kernel, with Li Qiang, chief adviser at commodities consultant Shanghai JC Intelligence, predicting China will boost its imports of such alternatives and reduce demand for soybean imports by as much as six million tons.

According to Xinhua, another alternative that is being explored by researchers is low-protein feed combined with amino acid supplements. Livestock raised on such feed show no decline in production or quality, according to research.

Widespread adoption of the low-protein feed would reduce demand for soybeans by up to seven percent, equivalent to five million tons of imports, according to Zhang Haitao of Guangdong Evergreen Feed Industry.

In addition to alternative sources of food for livestock, China also has millions of hectares of arable land suitable for domestic soybean production. According to Fu Tingdong, a professor at central Hubei Province’s Huazhong Agricultural University, four million hectares of idle arable land in the Yangtze River Basin could be used for planting soybeans.

Earlier this year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that China's soybean planting area would increase by more than 666,000 hectares by the end of the year.

China has long been reliant on imports of soybeans for animal feed due to years of low prices. However, the cost of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased as a result of trade frictions between China and the United States.

After a 25 percent levy was placed on US soybean imports in retaliation to US tariffs on Chinese products, American soybean prices have slumped, with US farmers repeatedly warning the Trump administration against a trade war with China.

According to China Daily, more than 80 percent of the soybeans consumed in China are imported.

In 2017, the country imported more than 95 million tons, worth about 40 billion US dollars, according to the General Administration of Customs.