‍The 2018 World Cup has seen defending champions Germany turn to dust and disappear in the group stage; the lowest ranked team, Russia, dominate its group stage and then knock out Spain; both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo get sent home at the exact same point as their teams flail around them. It’s been crazy. But for England, there has been nothing but the same creeping dread that has haunted the team for two decades.

New manager Gareth Southgate has completely revamped the team and the starting XI full of young, hungry players is a universe away from the complacent megastars of the past, yet there has been a specter haunting them – the specter of quarterfinal penalties. 

Even when the going was good and a win was had over Tunisia and Panama were being crushed to a record breaking standard, the belief in England, from fans, pundits and even the team themselves, had an aura of seeming like things were too good to be true. Success can’t be trusted – it’s a trick.

The Belgium game confirmed it. After two big wins, the narrative had switched from playing for the love of the game to a technocratic Moneyball management of facts, figures and odds. A win put England in the hard side of the draw, a loss put them in the easier. A draw also put them in the latter, but may damage morale more than taking a dive. This continued in the media almost endlessly, even as the expected results these prognostications were based on didn’t come true. This was the same old England, already reverse engineering their path to the final and overlooking the next step, be it Italy in 2014, Iceland in 2016 or Colombia in 2018.

Considering all the abuse rightfully given to Argentina for being hopeless without Messi, people seem to have ignored Colombia entirely, whose entire ability to play is dependent on if the injured James Rodriguez is there or not. Their loss to Japan was seen as an aberration at the time, but their following performances have made it seem like he is the professional player and the remaining 10 are amateurs who look the part or maybe won a contest to spend a day with the Bayern Munich star.

This was emphasized by just how much time the director spent watching Rodriguez, alternately Colombia’s biggest fan and a sullen onlooker acting like he’s watching somebody else’s birthday party from outside, instead of focusing on the match itself. 

Perhaps that was to hide just how ugly it was. At some point, there will have to be a major discussion about the rot that has set in to the Spanish and Portuguese style of football. Spain, Portugal, Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay and both Panama and Colombia, two teams England has faced, treat thug and diver like a position alongside striker and defender and UEFA, CONCACAF and FIFA aren’t doing anything about it.

It leads to a match where Colombia can get five yellow cards, concede a penalty and still base their game entirely around brutalizing the opposition because they know nothing, even with VAR, will be done. England, for their part, were fine. Agile but increasingly unconfident in the face of Colombia’s anti-football style, early highlights from Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane fizzled out rather than feeling like a strike team finding their range after being rested for a few days; four games in and the team still only has one goal from open play. By halftime, pressure was building and tempers were fraying: a free kick that shouldn’t have been anywhere near as strained almost turned into a brawl as Wilmar Barrios feigned a headbutt on Jordan Henderson who tried and failed to dive like a Colombian would.

Even as the whistle blew for halftime and the players were leaving the pitch, a member of the Colombian staff intentionally barged into Sterling, setting the tempo for the rest. A penalty awarded in the 53rd minute and actually taken five minutes later due to chaos in the box was coolly sunk by Kane. Unlike a usual penalty, this didn’t feel righteous nor like it had given England an advantage as Colombia just kept fighting. Radamel Falcao, with his out-of-date haircut, over the top antics and mediocre technique fashioned in Ligue 1's Monaco, Western Europe’s biggest footballing joke, now looks like a knock-off Ronaldo from an American sitcom, and that was enough to make him their best player.

In the 93rd minute, disaster struck. Colombia forced a 1-1 draw with an 11-men-up corner, bringing extra time, which as expected, led to a shootout. This is where it felt inevitable: England haven’t progressed beyond this point since the game against Ecuador at Germany 2006 and six eliminations since 1990 have come from penalties. Southgate’s most famous moment as a player was missing one against Germany in Euro ’96. The early success was too good to be true. This is what happens to England. They were going home, it was inevitable.

And then Everton’s Jordan Pickford, mocked by Belgium’s Thibaut Courtois for being only 6’1”, saved twice against David Ospina’s once and put England through to the quarterfinals. The long night ended quickly, stunning everyone including the winners. In the Twilight Zone of this year’s World Cup, teams have no fate but what they make for themselves and the relief during the celebrations on the pitch showed England finally knew it. Anything is possible. It can come home.