Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities. He writes on topics pertaining to China, the DPRK, Britain and the United States. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

April 30 saw the situation in Venezuela move closer to a military character than any point so far. Claiming he had won some support from soldiers in the country's military, Juan Guaido, proclaimed "interim president" of the country by the U.S., urged people of the country to take to the streets. On Twitter, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo backed Guaido's moves as the first step in "Operation Libertad" which according to both parties, would be the "final phase" of opposing the incumbent government of Nicolas Maduro.

However, what exactly is going on remains unclear. The Maduro government have insisted that the military remain fully under their control. In addition, Pompeo has since claimed that Maduro was "about to leave" but then didn't at the advice of Russia. Similarly, U.S. President Donald Trump has also taken to twitter threatening an "embargo" of Cuba if it did not end its alleged involvement in supporting the political status quo. 

Although the facts cannot be verified, what can be assured is that the U.S. is now aggressively upping the ante in their bid to secure regime change in the Latin American country. What should be concerning is that the window for a non-violent struggle has seemingly closed; make no mistake about it, the White House is very much up for the fight.

To understand the Venezuela leadership crisis, one must first look at the foreign policy of the Trump administration in pursuing what it describes as a new adherence to the "Monroe Doctrine" in Latin America. More concerned with the relative decline of American hegemony than any administration after the Cold War, the White House has sought to respond with a reassertion of unilateral power in the Americas under the age-old mantle set by former U.S. President James Monroe that Washington must have exclusive dominance of the region. 

This has set a long precedent that the U.S. forcibly resists any government that refuses to follow suit to its interests and favors foreign powers, setting out a long history of sponsored coups and military interventions. As U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton stated in an interview two days ago, "this is our hemisphere" naming the Monroe doctrine explicitly.

In pursuing this path, the Trump administration has ignited a newfound hostility towards such countries deemed incompliant to American goals, with a particular focus towards Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua. For Havana, the administration quickly jettisoned Barack Obama's historic rapprochement with the country and immediately reverted to hostile rhetoric. However, Caracas would soon prove itself to be the first target. Seizing upon a longstanding economic crisis as an entry point, late 2018 saw the administration directly intervene through declaring National Assembly leader Guaido as the "interim leader" of the country and demanding the resignation of President Maduro.

Quite clearly for the sake of public face, Washington hoped to facilitate a peaceful transition of power. The administration hoped that by upping sanctions pressure on the country by choking off its oil revenue and blacklisting officials, they could gradually erode support for Maduro and urge him to quit while he was ahead. This, however, did not appear to be very successful. The status quo continued, and foreign powers such as Russia also worked to reaffirm their support for the Maduro government, allowing him to continue. A period of six months would pass with minimal action.

Now, the U.S. and Guaido, explicitly working in tandem, appear to be upping the ante. Having failed to get the peaceful transition they demanded, they are now opening the door to a military coup and the inevitable violence that will follow. Proclaiming "Operation Libertad," effort appears to now be centered upon getting military members to defect and removing the Maduro administration by force; the extent of the defectors remains unclear. 

In turn, the White House is also increasing threats towards Cuba for its military support of the government. Trump has threatened a "full and complete embargo" alongside the "highest-level sanctions" against Havana. Still, Maduro has since addressed the country and publicly reaffirmed his position, stating "we will not give up, we will not be a colony."

Given this, in summary, one may expect the situation to escalate further as time goes on. The U.S., stemming from very clear regional objectives, are set upon securing a regime change within Venezuela and do not appear to be relenting. The Maduro administration clearly feels resilient enough not to back down. Thus, the turn towards a military dynamic is almost inevitable. This is a confrontation the U.S. is very much up for. Still, with Moscow also lingering in the background, one should pay careful attention to what they do next. 

(Cover: Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro (C) delivering a speech during a military ceremony to commemorate the sixth anniversary of the death of former president Hugo Chavez in Caracas, Venezuela, March 5, 2019. /VCG Photo)

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)