The G20 summit last weekend successfully closed with a joint statement from the leaders addressing fair and sustainable development. At the same time, the working dinner between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump prevented the escalation of the trade disputes.
G20 is an international stage for the leaders of the world to voice their differences and to identify ways to overcome them. The trend of multilateralism and international trade is being reversed – from the U.S.-oriented norm to China, Russia and developing countries' advocacy.
Anton Fedyashin, a history professor at American University, regarded the cause of the trend as the eclipse of American hegemony and the rise of new powers.
Xu Qinduo, a senior fellow at the Pangoal Institution, suggests that China and the U.S. will eventually come up with a deal that is beneficial for both countries and avoid a full confrontation with each other. The key stake behind it is that both Beijing and Washington are unwilling risk the spillover effect from economic disputes to other sectors.
According to Lida Preyma, director of Capital Markets Research at the G20 Research Group, the new NAFTA deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico will be finalized in the future. Though the trade pact was signed, both the U.S. and Mexico intend to amend the deal according to political appeals from the new U.S. House of Representatives and Mexico's new president.
Gaps between the U.S. and Russia are widening in energy resources and arm deals. The Ukraine-Russia crisis stemming from a vessel seizure affected the G20 summit when Donald Trump canceled a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Fedyashin pointed to the coming election in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's approval rating dropped below 12 percent, and his prospects of winning re-election are scarce. Therefore, Poroshenko may be more assertive in the situation, and the tension may escalate in the area. However, Fedyashin does not expect there to be a war, as it will go against every country's interest in the region.
Regarding the trade problems, what Trump wants out of the trade war with China is still being speculated. Arthur Dong, a professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business, indicated that there are substantive issues that Trump would like to lobby on, such as the question of international property transfer, and the openness of trade and China's resolution to buy more U.S. goods. However, Trump's style of listing all requirements and forcing China to comply instead of a process of mutual cooperation could be an obstacle to future negotiations.
Finally, on the climate problem, a detailed execution of the Paris Accord was discussed among China's foreign minister, France's foreign minister and the UN secretary general during the G20 summit. Though the United States pulled out of the deal, China is taking an active role in addressing environmental protection. Xu thinks that the firm support from Chinese citizens and the national planning for energy development further increase China's determination on the climate agenda.
The Heat with Anand Naidoo is a 30-minute political talk show on CGTN. It airs weekdays at 7:00 a.m. BJT and 7:00 p.m. Eastern in the United States.