Editor's note: The article is based on an interview with Li Nan, an associate research fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects Li's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
"Although finishing denuclearization remains an ongoing task, the second Trump-Kim summit will bring the greatest benefits not only to East Asia, but also the whole world," said Li Nan, an associate research fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told CGTN.
On Friday, the White House announced that the next Trump-Kim summit will take place "near the end of February."
"President Donald J. Trump met with Kim Yong Chol (The deputy chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea) for an hour and a half, to discuss denuclearization and a second summit, which will take place near the end of February. The President looks forward to meeting with Chairman Kim at a place to be announced at a later date,” White House statement said.
Why are they talking?
"The U.S. and the DPRK are hoping to arrange the second Trump-Kim summit as soon as possible. This is the basis of the two sides holding further substantive talks," Li told CGTN.
Since the
first meeting between Trump and Kim, the internal situations in both countries have undergone tremendous changes. As he enters 2019, Trump is facing lots of domestic pressures.
The U.S. government shutdown has left him in a bad position, and Congress continues to investigate the possibility of inappropriate connections between him and Russia, all of which are hard to respond to.
A demonstrator holds a sign while protesting outside of the White House during the partial government shutdown in Washington, D.C., U.S, January. 12, 2019. /VCG Photo
A demonstrator holds a sign while protesting outside of the White House during the partial government shutdown in Washington, D.C., U.S, January. 12, 2019. /VCG Photo
"Given his current situation, meeting with Kim may help Trump to land on his feet," Li told CGTN. As Li notes, Trump is hoping to use the meeting with DPRK's Kim Jong Un to divert attention from his domestic situation and to refresh his image.
As for DPRK side, Li believes that Kim's central preoccupation in 2019 is economy. Without the cooperation with the Republic of Korea (ROK), the DPRK's economic growth efforts would be in vain. In this context, denuclearization has always been the bedrock of their cooperation. In Li's opinion, the inter-Korea Peninsula relations are reliant on the status of U.S.-DPRK ties.
"It is only when the DPRK further improves its ties with the U.S. that DPRK-ROK cooperation is on the cards," Li told CGTN.
Li states that the ROK has a higher expectation on the second Trump-Kim summit and they hope that Kim will bring those achievements to Seoul when he meets with ROK's Moon Jae-in this year.
What will they talk about?
"The U.S. and DPRK will reaffirm their position on denuclearization and talk about setting up peace mechanism during their meeting in February," Li told CGTN
According to Li, at this summit, it is possible that Trump and Kim will reach a deal concerning denuclearization, and may even discuss specific steps towards getting rid of weapons.
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un shake hands following a signing ceremony during their first summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore, July 12, 2018. /VCG Photo
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un shake hands following a signing ceremony during their first summit, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore, July 12, 2018. /VCG Photo
"Personally, I think that they will sign a deal on basic concepts of denuclearization during their meeting," Li told CGTN. As Li notes, despite their differences in fulfilling denuclearization, they may get down to brass tacks. The U.S. and DPRK might treat denuclearization with kid gloves.
In addition to this, the summit's other main purpose is to discuss peace-building mechanisms on the Korean Peninsula. Kim promised to "make the Korean Peninsula a durable and lasting peace zone" during his traditional January 1 New Year address.
Li noted that Kim's recent speech highlighted a determination to enhance the DPRK's economy and that a peaceful global environment is an essential foundation for prosperity, thus Li believes that the topic of setting up a peace mechanism will be included in their conversation.
Although Li speaks highly of the prospect of their second meeting, there are still challenges ahead.
According to Li, although both sides will put their best foot forward to improve ties, there is still a long way to fulfill the real denuclearization. The biggest obstacle of all is the way of denuclearization. As Li points out that America and the DPRK have different understandings when it comes to how to fulfill denuclearization.
Though the DPRK is committed to the hard work of “complete denuclearization” on the Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang still insists on a "step-by-step" denuclearization, which is in contradiction to Washington's proposition that challenges DPRK to solve the problem once and for all. As Li notes, a "step-by-step" denuclearization is the bottom-line of Pyongyang, and it is difficult for both sides to reach an agreement over the issue this time.
Despite the challenges behind their meetings, Li still has high expectations going forward. It is his firm conviction that there are heaps of benefits that can be reaped from the second Trump-Kim summit, and as long as they are willing to commit to improving global interests, the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula will not be a pipe dream.
(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.)