Editor's note: Paulo Botta is a professor at the Catholic University of Argentina. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

OPEC leaders will gather in Vienna on December 6. The decisions of OPEC, one of the leading actors on the international stage, have direct economic and social impact all over the world. In this regard, we are waiting with great interest for the Vienna meeting.

 Any significant reduction in oil output will generate immediate turmoil in international markets that will have to be faced by developed and underdeveloped economies alike. Some sources indicate that the objective is to reduce output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day.

As has happened many times, some OPEC member countries are more eager to reduce production than others and some non-member countries support, at the same time, different positions.

Saudi Arabia, the most important producer, was during the last couple of months in the middle of a diplomatic nightmare and a risking isolation due to the assassination of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

After the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires (Argentina) last week, it seems that the position of the kingdom and its powerful Crown Prince and Minister of Defense, Mohamed Ben Salman, widely known as MBS, was not affected. Even though President Trump openly backed  MBS, does it mean that Riyadh will support the United States' position?

MBS will have to choose what to do between decreasing the production in order to avoid what some analysts characterize as a flooded oil market, or supporting the American perspective.

The American shale oil industry and domestic interests require avoiding any increase of the international oil price and they do not favor any output cut that would potentially generate it. According to international data, the United States is producing more oil than Iraq, which is the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia, generating a major geopolitical shift. American consumers and American companies are benefiting from this situation.

On the other hand, although Russia is a non-OPEC country; it's one of the main oil producers. Moscow´s economy is very dependent on oil prices, one of its most important export commodities, and paradoxically does not want to reduce its production given the uncertainty of the impact on its economy. It is not clear that the price will escalate. The negative impact of lower production, which means lower revenues and not higher prices, will have unwanted domestic consequences. Even though some reports indicate that Russian and Saudi officials are negotiating an agreement on output cuts, an agreement is not assured.

Analysts suggest that the oil price will not grow for several reasons: The global economy will become less dependent on oil demand; the United States will continue to pump oil into the global market and countries such as Iran will not be expelled from the market. Sanctions on Iran are back but not as fully implemented as was thought. Important trading partners like China and India will continue to buy Iranian oil. Even Europeans will continue to trade with Tehran.

It is important to note that the two major global powers, China and the U.S., share the same position that oil prices should not rise.

What is interesting to note is the core changes in the international system. Many of the facts we are reflecting here, were almost inconceivable decades ago: Unites States as a major oil producer; Russia sharing interests with OPEC member countries; Saudi Arabia incapable of influencing oil prices on its own. The world is changer faster than our analytical frameworks.

Oil markets are about geopolitics, not only about the economy or about supply and demand. Domestic, regional and global geopolitics. From this point of view, we should analyze the current situation.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)