Beginning on the last day of 2018, the week ahead will be eventful for political observers. Leaders around the world are expected to deliver New Year messages, setting the tone for the whole year in one way or another.
In his New Year address a year ago, Kim Jong Un, leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), extended an olive branch to Seoul by offering to discuss sending a DPRK delegation to take part in the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in the Republic of Korea (ROK). The overture led to improvement in relations between Pyongyang and Seoul after prolonged tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Whose speeches will make the headlines this time?
Meanwhile, the first day of 2019 will mark the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the United States. The day will also see the inauguration of Jair Bolsonaro as Brazil's new president.
The presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran are likely to meet in Moscow over the Syrian conflict in the first week of 2019, as the U.S. prepares to pull its troops out of Syria.
In Washington, a partial shutdown of the U.S. government could stretch into 2019. President Donald Trump has threatened to close the U.S.-Mexico border unless Congress agrees to fund his proposed border wall.
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Gambia and Senegal from Wednesday to Sunday. He will also meet with Moussa Faki Mahamat, chairperson of the African Union Commission.
40th anniversary of China-U.S. diplomatic ties
China and the U.S. forged diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level on January 1, 1979 after several years of rapprochement. Then Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping paid a historic visit to the U.S. from late January to early February that year.
Four decades on, bilateral trade volume between China and the U.S. has skyrocketed from less than 2.5 billion U.S. dollars to over 580 billion U.S. dollars in 2017, an increase of more than 200 times.
Despite the ongoing trade frictions, both sides have shown the willingness to talk and improve relations. Chinese President Xi Jinping had a working dinner with his U.S. counterpart Trump on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Argentina on December 1, agreeing not to impose new additional tariffs.
They also decided to instruct the economic teams of the two sides to step up negotiations toward the removal of all additional tariffs and reach a concrete agreement that would result in win-win results.
Cooperation is the best option for the two countries, Xi said.
On Saturday, the two leaders held a telephone conversation over the implementation of their consensus. Trump said relevant talks and coordination between the teams of both countries are producing positive progress.
Noting that the bilateral ties are now in a vital stage, Xi said Beijing is willing to work with Washington to summarize the experience of 40 years of development of China-U.S. relations and strengthen exchanges and cooperation in various fields.
"The progress achieved in the past 40 years has not come by easily and experience should be derived from that," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang commented on the anniversary in a written statement on Sunday.
China and the U.S. should respect each other's sovereignty, security and development interests and "properly manage differences" in an effort to "avoid disturbing the general picture of bilateral ties," Lu stressed.
Additionally, New Year's Day will mark the 40th anniversary of a milestone in cross-Strait relations. On January 1, 1979, the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's top legislature, issued the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan," stating major policies to realize peaceful reunification of the country.
Russia-Turkey-Iran coordination on Syria
After Trump announced the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Syria, other players are competing to fill the vacuum. Turkish troops and Turkish-backed rebels recently reinforced the front around Manbij in northern Syria, threatening to crush the Kurdish YPG militia in the area.
The YPG, an ally of the U.S. in the fight against ISIL, is regarded as a "terrorist group" by Turkey. On Friday, the Kurds invited Syrian government forces to take control of Manbij to protect them from Turkish attacks. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's troops entered the town later that day.
In this context, Russia and Iran, who support Assad's government, and opposition backer Turkey are taking steps to enhance coordination.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in Moscow on Saturday, agreeing to coordinate ground operations in Syria in the aftermath of Trump's announcement. Russian and Turkish defense ministers Sergei Shoigu and Hulusi Akar also attended the meeting.
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said on Friday that Moscow will host the leaders of Russia, Iran and Turkey to discuss the Syrian conflict early next year.
"It's our turn to host the summit... around the first week of the year. This will depend on the schedules of the presidents," Bogdanov said.
But a Tass report on Saturday suggested that the summit "is planned to be held in mid-January."
The summit will be the latest step in the Astana peace process – set up in early 2017 by Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Bolsonaro's New Year party
Brazil's President-elect Bolsonaro will assume office on Tuesday. Choosing the New Year's Day to hold his inauguration ceremony, Bolsonaro is testing Brazil's friendship with the world – which foreign leaders are coming to Brasilia to congratulate him in person on this special day?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are among the most prominent politicians to attend the ceremony. Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, Chilean President Sebastian Pinera and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will also be present. Argentina has sent Foreign Minister Jorge Faurie to take part.
Ji Bingxuan, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress Standing Committee, will attend Bolsonaro's inauguration as the special envoy of President Xi.
On the other hand, Brazil's right-wing leader did not invite any Cuban or Venezuelan official.
Day-by-Day
Monday: Vote counting is expected in DR Congo and Bangladesh following general elections on Sunday, and world leaders are expected to deliver New Year messages.
Tuesday: World leaders are expected to deliver New Year messages, China and the U.S. mark the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties, China marks the 40th anniversary of issuing the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan," Romania takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union (EU) from Austria, Patrick Shanahan is expected to replace James Mattis as U.S. defense secretary, and Jair Bolsonaro is inaugurated as Brazil's new president.
Wednesday: Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi kicks off an official visit to Ethiopia and the African Union (AU) headquarters in Addis Ababa, Burkina Faso, Gambia and Senegal, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Colombia, and British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaks about the UK's global role after Brexit in a speech in Singapore.
Thursday: The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on reopening government as the new Congress convenes, and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi continues his Africa visit.
Friday: Myanmar celebrates the 71st anniversary of its independence, and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi continues his Africa visit.
Saturday: Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi continues his Africa visit.
Sunday: Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi concludes his four-nation tour in Africa, and Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party is expected to elect a new leader.