Politics
2018.11.27 19:37 GMT+8

Experts: Brexit can bring China and UK closer but uncertainty remains

By Zhou Jingnan

"Just out of economic pragmatism, the UK will seek a closer economic relationship with China to ensure access to the country's large market, which can potentially offset the loss in Europe." 

That is how Wang Dan, an Economist Intelligence Unit analyst, described the outlook for post-Brexit business ties between China and the UK in an interview with CGTN Digital. 

If Britain leaves the European Union (EU) on March 29, 2019 it will be able to negotiate trade agreements – though they will only come into force when it leaves the EU's customs union. A free trade deal with China is high on the agenda, according to UK government officials. 

Wang said the areas with the biggest potential for growth in the China-UK partnership will be "in services like elderly care, health, education and finance which Britain has rich experience and high standards in."

According to statistics from a briefing paper compiled by the UK's House of Commons Library, the UK's trade deficit with China was 22.9 billion pounds in 2017. However, it does enjoy a surplus of 2.6 billion pounds on trade in services with China.

Last year, the country exported 4.3 billion pounds of services to China, among which travel services were the most popular export.

Rosy as the picture might appear for China to benefit more from UK's services industry in the post-Brexit era, uncertainty looms as the future UK-EU trade relations are yet to be outlined in law. 

A roadmap for future ties, signed off by the UK government and EU leaders but not by their respective parliaments, is vague and does not bind either party.

"The key for me about Brexit is what happens to Chinese companies trying to do business with Europe and the UK, where previously they may have had one headquarters… now they will have to face the fact that looking at the agreement that is going in play for the future relations between the UK and the EU, it's (the agreement is) very vague. It just says they will attempt to maintain free trade for goods and services, but recognize that there will be restrictions. And that doesn't tell you anything." 

That was from Simon Gleave, regional head of financial services for KPMG China. He told CGTN Digital it is exactly this uncertainty that creates problems for people and companies trying to do business with either the UK or the EU bloc. 

Gleave is particularly worried about the prospect of the UK's services industry. He said free trade in services is actually much more difficult than trade in goods because the rules differ from country to country. 

"The services industry in the Europe is not unified, and that's caused an issue for a lot of things," Gleave stressed. 

And the UK's withdrawal will further complicate the issue. 

"At the moment, all of the major international banks in the world use London as their financial hub for the European zone." Gleave explained, saying thanks to the legal system of the UK, and the common language, "it's just very easy to write a contract that could be easily understood." 

But with the UK withdrawing from the EU, countries like France would view the UK as a competitor and try to limit the access of its services into their markets, according to Gleave.

The problem it could cause for Chinese banks needing to deal with a customer in Europe is that they may have to communicate in languages that they are not familiar with.

The management of trade and business across Europe will have to be rethought, Gleave said.  

Since trade negotiations between the EU and the UK could potentially last a long time – Gleave thinks it will probably be around 10 years – he suggests Chinese companies trying to do business with the UK or the EU during that period take measures like setting up two headquarters to protect their normal businesses against all uncertainty. 

Richard Burn, British Trade Commissioner for China and British Secretary of State for International Trade Liam Fox stand in front of a promotional billboard after signing memorandums of understanding between British and Chinese firms at the British Ambassador's Residence in Beijing, China, August 24, 2018. /VCG Photo 

In terms of the internationalization of the RMB, neither expert believes Brexit will impact the process directly.

"But [the] eurozone and British economy will both suffer from Brexit, which may slow down trade and financial transactions. The pie will be smaller and so will the demand for yuan," Wang said.

During a regular press briefing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang emphasized that China expects the UK and the EU to finally reach a consensus on Brexit. 

A consensus, and a consensus on a clearer EU-UK trade relationship, is key to addressing the uncertainty that exists for Britain, the EU and China. 

(Graphics by Zhang Xuecheng)

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