Will Shia and Sunni unity define Iraq's future?

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‍Editor’s note:‍ Wang Jin is a PhD candidate, School of Political Science, University Haifa in Israel; research fellow, Northwest University. The article reflects the author’s opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The latest Iraqi election, which will serve as the foundation for the new Iraqi government, is a historical event for many Iraqis. It is the first Iraqi election since the defeat of ISIS last year, and the election may witness the end of traditional sectarian divides inside Iraqi political scenario, and may facilitate the coming of new relation between Iraq and Iran.

Although the political system is designed by Washington after the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 when Iraqi Saddam Hussein regime was overthrown, the political dynamics inside Iraq has been out of Washington’s control.

On the one hand, the complexities of Iraqi political and society makes the US determining role unlikely. Many powerful political and religious groups inside Iraq view US military presence in Iraq as “blasphemy” of Islam.

The election victory of al-Sairoon Coalition led by Iraqi Shia religious and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr has surprised everyone. Muqtada al-Sadr impressed the world in 2003 when he resisted the US military presence by the Mehdi army, a Shia militant group composed by Sadr’s supporters near Bagdad.

Moqtada al-Sadr speaks during a news conference in Najaf, Iraq May 17, 2018. /VCG Photo

However, Muqtada al-Sadr’s hostility against Washington cannot be equated with his willingness of cooperation with Iran. Although Iran is a state upholding the Shia sectarian, al Sadr does not want to stand with Iran.

Al-Sadr is a nationalist, in front of Iraqi voters, al-Sadr speaks only local dialect, not the standard Arabic, to show his “Iraqi identity”. Meanwhile, al-Sadr shows his aspirations of political independence through his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who perceives Iran as the most severe threat in Middle East.

However, Iran is still and will be an influential player in this region. The Fatah Coalition (Conquest) led by Hadi al-Amiri, who has close relations with Iran and the leader of Shia militia group People Mobilization Units, might become a major challenger to al-Sadr and his political bloc.

Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, especially since US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, the influence of Iran in Iraq has grown significantly.

American soldiers walk single file to board a C-130 plane for a flight to Kuwait for their final withdrawal from Iraq at Sather Air Base on December 3, 2011 in Baghdad, Iraq. /VCG Photo

On the one hand, the US military invasion of Iraq in 2003 fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape in Middle East and Gulf region, leaving Iran as the only regional power without any powerful opponent in the region.

On the other hand, the fragile Iraqi social and poetical network after 2003 has made Iran the only determining power that is able to influence or even dominate the Iraqi political environment.

Before the Iraqi parliament in 2014, nearly every important politician in went to Tehran, or met the Iranian representatives, to win over the support, or at least permission, from Iran. It was Iran-backed Shia military group People Mobilization Units that led the military campaign against ISIS and contributed to the final victory of expelling the ISIS militants out of Iraq.

The latest Iraqi parliament election could be perceived as an important attempt of cross-sectarian cooperation. Instead of forming of united Shia party in the hope of dominating the parliament, many Shia politicians in this election try to earn votes from Sunni and other sectarian and ethnic groups.

Iraqi supporters of Sairun list celebrate with Iraqi flags and a picture of Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr after results of Iraq's parliamentary election were announced, in Najaf, Iraq May 15, 2018. /VCG Photo

During the election campaign, Haider al Abadi travelled to Anbar and Salaheddine Province where most local people are Sunni, while Shia religious leader Muqtada al-Sadr forms coalition with Iraqi Communist Party. A more inclusive and cross-sectarian political scenario might come to birth after this Iraqi parliament election.

In this parliament election, we will witness the Shiite parties and politicians get Sunni votes, while Sunni candidates win the votes of Shiites. This may be a positive development in favor of the future of Iraq political and social stability, which had been going downhill due to the sectarian conflicts between Sunnis and Shiites since 2003.