Politics
2018.09.20 16:15 GMT+8

Abe secures three years more as PM, but what's next?

By Le Tian

Shinzo Abe was re-elected as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as expected on Thursday, and attention has already turned to his policy goals for the next three years, in particular how he will realize his dream of revising the pacifist constitution.

The 63-year-old conservative secured 553 votes against the 254 won by former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba in a two-horse race for leader of the LDP.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) celebrates with former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election at the party's headquarters in Tokyo on Sept. 20, 2018. /VCG Photo

Since the LDP won a general election last October, winning LDP's leadership hands Abe three more years as Japan's prime minister.

Even though he faced a series of cronyism and cover-up scandals, the 63-year-old Abe still became Japan's longest-serving prime minister. So who is he? Why is he both so overwhelmingly supported and intensely hated? What are his following challenges?

Ultimate political survivor 

Abe comes from an influential political family. His grandfather Kan Abe and father Shintaro Abe were both politicians. 

Abe is controversial because of his family ties to suspected war criminal Nobusuke Kishi, who is Abe's maternal grandfather and his direct connections to Japan's far right.

Since his first term in office in 2006-2007, Abe has persistently expressed a hardline stance against the DRPK and announced his ambitions to modernize and internalize Japan's military.

Thus, his visit to the controversially nationalistic Yasukuni Shrine has sparked widespread international outrage.

Scandals have also threatened his political life. Earlier this year, Abe's approval rating fell to the lowest level amid a scandal over schools, but he managed to cling to power. 

Read more:

How in danger is Abe amid the ongoing cronyism scandal?

Abe's supporters who favor his pragmatism defend him as a shrewd politician.

His "Abenomics" method of a hyper-easy monetary policy, increased spending and structural reform has helped reflate growth and expand Japan's economy for the past few years. 

Thus, analysts point out his timing has been both good and lucky. He assumed the leadership when his own party has a vacuum and, in the meantime, his opposition has fractured and become discredited, allowing him to take even more power.

Challenges ahead

By winning the election, Abe clears the way to further promote his Abenomics program and push his dream of reforming the country's post-World War II pacifist constitution.

First, however, he has the immediate challenge of a summit with US President Donald Trump, which is set to take place next week. In it he will face pressure to cut the 69 billion US dollar surplus with its key ally and nearly two-thirds from auto exports. 

Abe and Trump have forged close ties but Trump has made it clear he's unhappy about the bilateral trade imbalance and wants a two-way agreement to address it.

Read more:

Can Trump boost Abe's party leadership race chances?

At home, after years of heavy money printing, the Bank of Japan is running out of ammunition. Japan's huge public debt and the social welfare costs that are rising to cover the country's quickly aging population have also left Abe with little room to ramp up fiscal spending.

US President Donald Trump (R) takes part in a bilateral meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the Villa Diodoro on May 26, 2017 in Taormina, Sicily. /VCG Photo

"I want to tackle constitutional reform together with all of you," Abe told his LDP after the vote.

Abe has long voiced his intent to rewrite the constitution's Article 9, which renounces war and prohibits an army. He insisted any changes would merely remove the country's well-equipped self-defense forces from the constitutional paradox whereby they should not technically exist.

Read more:

Five things to know about Japan's pacifist constitution

But any changes to the text would be hugely sensitive in pacifist Japan and almost certainly greeted with fury from neighboring countries in Asia, especially China and the Koreas as they were victims of Japanese military aggression in the 20th century.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is also the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) leader, stands up after winning the leadership vote at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Sept. 20, 2018. /VCG Photo

Even if Abe can ignore international criticism and successfully get the required two-thirds approval from both houses of parliament, he would still face a public referendum before he could realize the amendments.

Local media reported Abe plans to reshuffle his cabinet on Oct. 1. However, he is expected to retain the Vice Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, a political ally who has long backed his "Abenomics" strategy.

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