New Zealand's avocado industry is thinking big after a breakthrough in exports to China.

Several years of trial shipments and rigorous testing procedures led to the first commercial shipments in early October and growers like Peter Marshall from the fertile Bay of Plenty region. He says that China "represents a massive opportunity for avocado growers and exporters in New Zealand."

In the 2018 season, New Zealand expects to send around 50,000 trays of Class I fruit to China, but industry leaders says that it is just the beginning and the aim is to be exporting 500,000 trays within five or six years.

Much will depend on good marketing. New Zealand avocados will cost double what Chinese consumers currently pay for fruit from South American countries like Mexico and Chile though exporters say that New Zealand fruits are of better quality and have superior nutritional values.

According to Jacob Darling, the sales and marketing manager at Just Avocados Limited, "New Zealand avocados have 20 percent more folate than other competing origins” and from a cosmetic viewpoint they're also cleaner and more evenly shaped. He says the key to success will be to convince Chinese consumers to pay more, and "if we can do that well I believe the Chinese market is going to hold some significant opportunity for us as a company but also as an industry."

New Zealand has around 1,350 growers who collectively manage over 4,000 hectares of avocados, and another 800 to 1,000 hectares are being planted by large corporate players entering the market in search of big returns. New Zealand Avocado chief executive Jen Scoular says the aim is to turn it into a billion-dollar industry by 2040. "So we are looking at how we might do that, and that will come with significant further investment into the industry."

The New Zealand industry is also riding a global wave of popularity for the fruit. In addition to being versatile as a food for breakfast, lunch or dinner, Ms. Scoular says there's been a global trend to actually look at the health attributes of avocado and say "wow, this is a food we really want to have in our diet."

But established growers like Peter Marshall are cautious. While the average price of a single avocado has reached a record high of 5 New Zealand dollars in 2018 due to a small harvest, he says there are years when he doesn't recover the cost of production. "It's been an industry which has had some turbulent ups and downs. Historically when we've had large crops it's coincided with poor returns."

And that's why a new era of exports to China is crucial according to Mr. Marshall. "Being able to establish strong markets in China is equally as important as increasing production on orchards."