Politics
2018.11.18 14:56 GMT+8

Global Political Calendar: What next for Britain?

By John Goodrich

Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Brunei and the Philippines, Britain faces another week of Brexit-inspired drama in the run-up to a special EU summit, Israel's coalition government is under strain and further personnel changes are possible in the Trump administration.

Britain in Brexit disarray

Theresa May has sought to steady the ship after a tumultuous few days for her government over Brexit, but the British prime minister will have plenty more headaches in the week ahead.

May only suffered two high profile resignations last week, but pro-Brexit Cabinet members have teamed up to try to make changes to her deal with the EU from the inside. A direct threat to her leadership from hardliners within her party remains alive, potential replacements are already campaigning and she doesn't look to have the votes to pass the existing deal through the British parliament. Demands for a renegotiation, a national unity government or a fresh referendum are growing. And several EU countries have misgivings about the current deal Brussels has struck with London.  

All this leads into a special EU summit on Sunday, which was scheduled to see EU leaders sign up to the withdrawal deal. It will take place "if nothing extraordinary happens," according to European Council President Donald Tusk.

Xi in Brunei, Philippines

Chinese President Xi Jinping will move on from Papua New Guinea, where he attended the APEC Summit at the weekend, to pay state visits to Brunei and the Philippines from Sunday to Wednesday.

Brunei, a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, is working on joint ventures with China on a petro-chemical project and an economic corridor to China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Xi will exchange views with Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah on mutually beneficial cooperation, according to Vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou.

In the Philippines Xi will meet with President Rodrigo Duterte, with cooperation documents on trade, infrastructure, and people-to-people exchanges expected.

Uncertainty in Israel

Political uncertainty has been triggered in Israel by the resignation of defense minister Avigdor Lieberman over a ceasefire deal with Hamas. The departure of Lieberman and his party from the governing coalition leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has cancelled a planned visit to Austria, with a parliamentary majority of just one.

Netanyahu is negotiating to keep the coalition together and avoid early elections, but rivals within the governing bloc are considering pulling out and forcing a vote. Any change in government in Israel could have profound consequences for the region.  

White House switch-up?

Intrigue in the White House is far from new, but following the midterm elections there is a growing expectation that President Donald Trump will shake up his top team.

The US has opted to hold off on imposing tariffs on auto imports from the EU, a decision lobby groups told Bloomberg was a sign anti-tariff economic adviser Larry Kudlow had gained influence at the expense of commerce secretary Wilbur Ross. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has already been forced out, meanwhile, and Chief of Staff John Kelly, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke are all reported to be in the firing line.

Day-by-day

Monday: Chinese President Xi Jinping continues a state visit to Brunei before heading on to the Philippines, Vice Premier of the State Council Sun Chunlan pays official visits to the Czech Republic and Croatia, State Councilor Wang Yong delivers a keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Seoul Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Istanbul to attend the launch of the TurkStream pipeline, and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz addresses the Shura Council in Riyadh.

Tuesday: The final results of Florida's disputed Senate race are expected to be certified, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan visits Malaysia, and British MPs Anna Soubry and Chuka Umunna, leading supporters of a second Brexit referendum, are due to hold a press conference in London.

Wednesday: German Chancellor Angela Merkel gives a keynote policy speech at the Bundestag ahead of Sunday's Brexit summit, and the EU Commission releases opinions on EU member state budget plans with analysts watching Italy closely amid an ongoing dispute.

Thursday: Campaigning begins ahead of December's elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the IAEA Board of Governors meeting takes place in Vienna, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Cuba.

Friday: No major events currently scheduled.

Saturday: The Bahraini Council of Representatives election is held.

Sunday: EU leaders are due to attempt to finalize the Brexit withdrawal agreement in Brussels, Switzerland holds a referendum on the precedence of domestic law over international law, and the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women takes place. 

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