Editor's note: Martin Jay is an award-winning journalist based in Beirut. His career as a foreign correspondent includes working for several major international media outlets. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The tension between the West and Saudi Arabia is reaching fever pitch. France, Britain and Germany have all shown that they are unhappy about how the Khashoggi murder has been handled and each will now have to respond to the political pressure from voters who want to see a new relationship based on shared values.

They know Saudi Arabia cannot change, but they are expecting a different level of engagement, especially given that none of those EU countries plan to entirely scrap their arms sales to the Arab kingdom.

But those analysts who believe that President Trump is going to do very little to “punish” the Saudis have missed the point; perhaps he will attempt to secure more arms sales out of them to at least show the American people that there is logic to his very gentle approach to the Khashoggi murder.

But it's unlikely the Saudis would go along with this demand. And far worse, there is another dynamic to this story which is not being picked up by Western media, who are perhaps using the Saudi journalist story to both boost their own careers and promote their outlets.

Some are trying to use the scandal as leverage against Trump, yes, but there is momentum by The Washington Post to investigate the murky dealings of the Saudis in America – how they dole out millions to PR agencies buying editorial support in leading media titles, while bribing journalists with Super Bowl tickets.

This momentum is almost certainly going to swallow Trump up, as, few believe that the business relations that he has with the House of Saud, is not also part of why he is doing everything he can to stall a proper investigation into the murder.

In recent days, the Saudis went public with their version of events which most journalists in Washington believe was packaged for them, by Trump's people.

The comedy of errors of how each senior member of the elite has given his own version of events – which fail to correspond with one another's – is what has led Western media to believe the more sensational allegations from Turkey's two leading newspapers (who are both the closest to President Erdogan).

The West has now bought the gruesome murder ordeal story complete with dismemberment, despite seeing any concrete evidence. Where is the body? Where is the bone cutting machine? If the audio recording doesn't show a "punch up" as the King's closest aide has said (which defies the version given by MBS) then what does it show?

In many ways it doesn't matter. What we are witnessing is a car crash in slow motion.

Historical relations between America and Saudi Arabia are slowly coming off the rails and what Trump fears more than anything else – even the wrath of media in his own country which will investigate him and his son-in-law's business deals in the Middle East – is a political groundswell from Congress which wants to ban arms sales to the Saudis.

For him, it's not about scrapping a 110 billion dollar deal (which he implausibly claims will save 600,000 American jobs); it's about other deals which journalists will unearth which show the Trump family's relationship with both the Saudis and Qataris is both corrupt and unconstitutional.

Is Trump's entire anti-Iran agenda about making billions off the Saudis in property deals?

Certainly, we know that Saudi plans to invade Qatar were annulled when Trump stepped in to stop them, only for a financial rescue plan for Jared Kushner's failed New York property venture was discovered.

What we are seeing is a full circle at the very least in that the Saudis are heading back to the previous setting of "friendly but distant" relations with Washington, which is a supreme irony in itself given that Jamal Khashoggi warned MBS that getting into bed with Trump would blow up in his face.

During the Obama period, Saudi Arabia's defense spending encompassed new partners, like Russia, and my opinion is that the Khashoggi affair is going to push the Saudi elite – who are not going to change – into the arms of Putin.

Russia will now embrace a new, working relationship with the Saudis, in particular in the area of defense procurement, which is great news for the region.

Geopolitical experts have always been at pain to fathom who needed whom in the anti-Iran ruse – the Americans or the Saudis – but now we will see that when the US media and Congress get into full swing with their agenda against the Saudis, that the Saudis, after all, don't even believe in their own agenda against Iran.

We will see that, in fact, the Iran game was all about keeping the Americans happy and keeping the arms sales bubbling and the oil flowing.

But leading Saudi commentators have already hinted in recent days that Saudi Arabia could forge a whole new relationship with Iran.

Was this merely a warning to Trump, to call off the dogs, or was there something more profound and genuine in this sentiment?

If the Saudis went to Putin and asked for a guarantee that no missiles were ever fired at Saudi Arabia from Iran, then how much would that guarantee be worth? Would it feasible? Sure.

Could Putin get such an assurance from Iran and be the guardian of the existing Iran Deal which prevents Tehran from making nuclear weapons? You betcha.

This is the Khashoggi story. His murder has forced a scenario where an insecure and image-conscious young Saudi prince has seen how US media is prepared to take the word of a bunch of Turkish editors over his, and condemn him without trial.

MbS, according to reports this week, has taken this very badly and has already told reporters that he will be “looking elsewhere” for better relations, which means Russia – which means a thaw in Saudi-Iran relations.

Trump's last ally to keep the farce going – the Iran ‘threat' – is abandoning him due largely to a turbulence from media and lawmakers who no longer believe in him as a president who has any value in the Middle East and whose ideas are skewered at best and corrupt at worst.

He can't even keep India from buying Russian made S400 missiles or from supporting his "secondary sanctions" plan against Iran's oil sales. If he loses the Middle East completely to the Russians, one has to wonder how much longer he can stay in office.

Hold on to your hats as we're in for quite a ride as peace may well be about to break out in the Middle East.

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