Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said earlier this week that he may announce the opening of a "business office" in Jerusalem during a visit to Israel starting on Sunday. Will this watered-down announcement satisfy Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is expecting a major boost ahead of the April 9 elections?

Relocating Brazil's embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem was an important promise that Bolsonaro made last November as Brazil's president-elect. During Netanyahu's visit to Brazil in late December, Bolsonaro assured him that the embassy move is "not a question of 'if' but of 'when.'"

But Brazil's right-wing leader, trying to walk a diplomatic tightrope between Israel and Arab importers of Brazilian meat, is likely to disappoint his "brother" Netanyahu – at least for now.

'Trapped in a spider's web'

After taking power in January, Bolsonaro reiterated his promise to follow U.S. President Donald Trump's lead in relocating the embassy to Jerusalem. But in recent days, Bolsonaro and other Brazilian officials appeared to be backtracking on the idea.

Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Bolsonaro suggested he was in no hurry to make a decision.

"Trump took nine months to decide, to give his final word, so that the embassy was transferred," he said. "Perhaps now we will open a commercial office in Jerusalem."

Brazilian Foreign Minister Ernesto Araujo said last week that the government was "still studying" the plan.

Some Brazilian lawmakers and analysts do not expect the president to announce the embassy move during his Israel trip, saying Brazil has little to gain but much to lose if Bolsonaro delivers the pledge.

Humberto Costa, a Brazilian senator, told CGTN that "Brazil wins very little" by relocating the embassy, though Bolsonaro's evangelical Christian support base would welcome such a move.

Opening an embassy in Jerusalem could create political tensions for Brazil, Costa said. The recognition of the two states – Israel and Palestine – has been a historical stance of the Brazilian Foreign Ministry, and changing its position on the Israel-Palestine conflict would "generate a tension" within the ministry, he noted.

"The president will also face the opposite political functioning of a significant part of the Arab community that exists in Brazil that has economic influence, will also face the dissatisfaction of the agribusiness sector that exports not only meat plus cereals to the Arab world and that will certainly face a retaliation by those countries that are going to seek other suppliers for these products," he said.

Costa, who is also the leader of the Workers' Party in Brazil's Congress, called agribusiness "one of the most important engines" of the country's economy, adding that meat production "plays a fundamental role."

By moving the embassy to Jerusalem, "Brazil has much to lose," said Fernando Tiburcio, a Brazilian lawyer in international rights. "The halal market today has significant importance for Brazilian exports and this can, yes, be harmed by this initiative."

At the same time, Tiburcio is worried that the embassy move would cause security concerns for Brazil. "Now the big problem is that it puts at risk the diplomatic representations of Brazil all over the world, with terrorist actions," he said in an interview with CGTN, noting that Brazil has historically between a "conciliator between Palestinians and Israelis."

"President Bolsonaro is trapped in a spider's web that was built during his campaign," the lawyer said.

'There is no deadline'

After Trump recognized Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, Netanyahu obviously wants another "gift" from Bolsonaro to boost his chances of being re-elected as Israel's head of government. The Brazilian leader has often been compared to the U.S. president, partly due to their anti-establishment and conservative style.

"We expect him (Bolsonaro) to announce the move of the embassy. We're not aware of any change in the president's position. We really want a declaration during his upcoming visit," Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely told The Times of Israel earlier this month. "We see Bolsonaro as a 'twin' of Trump, in that he is very keen on fulfilling his election promises. And moving the embassy was one of them."

On the other hand, Palestinians, who regard Jerusalem as the capital of a future Palestine state, have warned against the relocation of Brazil's embassy.

"Moving the embassy of any country ... is a violation of international law and an attack on the Palestinian people," the Palestinian envoy to Brazil, Ibrahim Alzeben, told AFP this week.

Tiburcio, admitting it is "very difficult" to make predictions on Bolsonaro's foreign policies, said he does not think the president will make an announcement on the relocation during his tour.

"I believe that President Jair Bolsonaro will not announce that on the visit," the lawyer told CGTN. "He will perhaps say that the embassy transfer is being studied, that this will be done at the appropriate time, but will not announce this as a fact."

Brazilian Senator Izalci Lucas said that Bolsonaro will not announce the embassy move at the moment.

"I do not think the embassy yet. There is no deadline. I think Brazil has to wait even longer," he said, noting that Brazil has to be "very careful" and take into account its friendship with the Arab community.

"Brazil needs to move forward with all countries," the lawmaker stressed. "We will do everything to ensure that there is no retaliation, no crisis regarding the halal meat issue."

So far, only the United States and Guatemala have opened embassies in Jerusalem. Paraguay backtracked on a decision last year to move its embassy.

Commenting on the resurgence of conservatism and the alignment of Trump, Bolsonaro and Netanyahu, Tiburcio cautioned Brazil against giving the world the idea that it is "being oriented by the United States."

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Though the disputed embassy move may not go ahead for now, Bolsonaro's visit is expected to boost cooperation between Brazil and Israel in various fields. The two sides will sign agreements in areas such as aviation, science and technology, security and medicine.

Brazil needs Israel's technology in agriculture and security, Lucas said.

(Cover: Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (L) greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December 28, 2018. /VCG Photo)