Opinions
2018.12.05 20:20 GMT+8

Opinion: 'Yellow Vests' big test for Macron

Hu Hong

Editor's note: Hu Hong is an assistant research fellow at the Department for European Studies at the China Institute of International Studies. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The Yellow Vest Movement has posed the biggest challenge to President Macron. On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe announced a six-month suspension of the fuel tax rise, but the movement may not calm down immediately as it has evolved into a more general protest against Macron.

Some protesters have carried signs with slogans saying “Macron, resignation” and “Macron, thief” since the very beginning of the protest. This is not to mention that the French president was already struggling with low popularity, polling in the mid-twenties before the protests began.

French President Emmanuel Macron (2ndL), flanked by Interior Minister Christophe Castaner (2ndR), Paris police prefect Michel Delpuech (R) and French Junior Minister attached to the Interior Ministry Laurent Nunez (L), walks on a street in Paris, December 2, 2018. /VCG Photo

The survey by pollster BVA found that only 26 percent of French people had a favorable opinion of Macron in mid-November. Now, no one can imagine how the popularity of the president will bounce back after the movement.

However, Macron's tax rise is not the root of these frustrations, which go much deeper to the existing divisions in French society.

As in many other countries, globalization has also had consequences in France and has torn the country apart. People gathering in old industrial areas and the urban fringe feel a strong sense of insecurity and neglect, feeling they've been left behind by a globalizing world.

The divisions have intensified between those with blue collar backgrounds and the elites, such as bankers, intellectuals and technocrats.

These different groups have their own interpretation of national policies and social systems. Once the discontent of a group has been suppressed for too long, they will tend to explode in a more radical way, especially in a country like France, with its prevalence of protest culture and street politics.

Macron's “stormy” reform catalyzes this “explosion.” After coming into power, Macron pushed forward a series of socio-economic reforms aimed at cutting high social welfare spending, enhancing the competitiveness of France and thus transforming France into a more modern economy.

However, those “neoliberalist” reforms have seemingly exacerbated divisions through their hasty delivery.

From the reform of labor law to the reform of education and retirement system, the pace has been a bit too fast, generating resentment among certain members of the public, which has little time to digest this change. 

A Yellow Vest protester wearing a Guy Fawkes mask gestures in front of French riot police during a demonstration against rising oil prices and living costs in Tours, central France, December 1, 2018. /VCG Photo

A majority of the people believe the government's reform policies are bad for social equality, while 73 percent believe the reforms have done more harm to the interests of the middle and lower classes, according to a poll by Le Monde.

The increase in the fuel tax thus became the last straw that finally ignited public anger.

Household disposable income fell 1.2 percent between 2008 and 2016 by 440 euro per family, according to the INSEE survey.

Discontent over the decline in purchasing power over the past decade has been building among the middle and lower classes. The tax rise leaves the people in a “fight or die” situation.

The global and French economic environment did not do Macron a favor either. Though the statistics look better in the third quarter, a true recovery of the French economy requires steady growth.  

The revenues of industries affected have dropped by 50 percent from 15 percent, including small retailers, hotels, and restaurants. This further dampens the hope that the economy can have growth in the fourth quarter driven by higher consumer spending.

Though the situation is full of uncertainties, the way out looks rather clear to Macron.

The highest priority for Macron is to find a compromise which enables him to mollify the protestors without abandoning his reforms.

To do that, the president may need to adjust his reform agenda to make it more acceptable to the public.

Walking into the grassroots and truly communicating with them is the only way for Macron to fight against and discard the title of “the president of the rich” and thus win back the support of the public.          

(Cover photo: Protesters march against rising oil prices and living costs, in Lille, northern France, December 1, 2018. /VCG Photo) 

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