Jean-Claude Juncker presents his final State of the Union (SOTU) speech as European Commission president on Wednesday, days after the EU establishment was jolted by a populist surge in Sweden's election.
Sweden's traditional governing blocs are neck and neck with final results due on Wednesday, but the far-right, nationalist Sweden Democrats increased its share of the vote by 50 percent amid anti-immigrant fervor to become a potential kingmaker in coalition talks.
As the Scandinavian country prepares for weeks of negotiations, or even, a fresh election, Juncker will lay out a speech expected to focus on migration and a call for EU solidarity – in the face of resurgent euroscepticism.
President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker (R) and former British Prime Minister David Cameron (L) talk together during European Union (EU) Summit in Brussels, Belgium, on March 17, 2016. /VCG Photo
The set-piece address comes ahead of European elections next May which mainstream European parties are increasingly anxious about given the rise of small populist parties.
Juncker said in last year's SOTU that "the wind was back in Europe's sails" following the election of centrist Emmanuel Macron in France, but nationalist parties now share power in Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland, and have made gains in Germany and the Netherlands as well as Sweden.
In both Germany and the Netherlands, the rise of populist parties in the wake of the 2015 migrant crisis contributed to lengthy coalition negotiations which contributed to the stalling of EU reform pushed by Macron.
Professor Anthony Zito, co-director of the Jean Monnet Centre at the University of Newcastle, told CGTN Digital that Juncker was likely to tackle the migration issue head-on.
"He will lay out a vision which to some extent involves reinforcing what the EU is already doing, but bolstering it, i.e. strengthening EU institutions and EU policies – including trying to create a more ambitious program to support and partner with African countries enmeshed in the migratory crisis."
Syrian refugees seen inside Velika Kladusa refugee camp, trying to make their way into the EU via Bosnia. Photo taken on Aug. 12, 2018. /VCG Photo
Juncker will confirm a plan to boost the Frontex border agency with 10,000 guards by 2020, AFP reported on Tuesday, and Spanish newspaper El Pais has reported that more centralized border management rules could be announced.
But achieving EU-wide agreement on migration remains tough.
"The approach – hardening the borders of Europe by making deals with neighbors – is now clear, but implementing it abroad and maintaining EU consensus continues to be challenging," Dr. Andrew Glencross, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told CGTN Digital. "This is because migration is so politically sensitive within and across EU countries."
Juncker will speak shortly after Matteo Salvini, leader of Italy's League and a face of anti-migration since his party came to power in coalition with Five Star, said the far-right could form the largest grouping in the next European parliament in elections that were "the last opportunity to save Europe."
Salvini, who is being investigated for "kidnapping" a group of migrants as Italy's interior minister, recently signaled he would join former Trump adviser Steve Bannon's "The Movement" – a loose coalition of European parties attempting to counter integrationist policies.
Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini speaks at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy, on Sept. 8, 2018. /VCG Photo
"While Salvini is currently more visible in terms of his antagonism to past and current EU migratory responses, the more implacable opposition on principle will be found in certain of the East European member states," Zito added.
That divide between east and west has been heightened since the EU launched disciplinary proceedings against Poland over reforms Brussels claims threaten the rule of law. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will defend his country against similar accusations this week.
Austria's far-right party on Monday invited Orban to form a common bloc in the European Parliament, while Orban and Salvini have discussed uniting to block the policies of Macron.
The growing far-right network – although divergent on many issues – poses a headache for the EU establishment which Juncker will seek to counter on Wednesday.
Addressing migration and building bridges within the EU is a legacy Juncker hopes to leave as he nears the end of his presidency. AFP quoted Juncker's chief spokesman Margaritis Schinas as saying he is anxious not to become a lame duck in his final months in office.
"For the last stretch we are determined to follow a golden rule of politics: when you have a political mandate you start strong and you finish strong."