Uncertainties loom over post-Brexit scenario

World
Europe

03:27

As members of the British parliament are preparing to vote on whether to back Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan, many are already concerned about the possible impact of the chaotic Brexit outcome.

Shi Huimin, a research fellow with the National Academy of Development and Strategy under Renmin University of China, shared her view on the ripple effect that this historic event has and will have on Britain and the global economy.

Regarding whether Britain could lose its status as one of the world's leading financial hubs, and the broad impact it will have on the overall British economy, Shi believes that, in the short term, the UK will definitely be diminished in the short term.

That's because France and Germany are still very dissatisfied with the UK for leaving the European Union (EU) even though it also holds membership of other international organizations. They would assume that if Britain could leave the EU, it could also leave them, therefore it has become a very “unstable” player in global affairs.

In the long term, the uncertainties of whether Britain could retain its current economic clout remain high. That's heavily dependent upon the outcome of the Brexit deal.

About 17.4 million Britons voted for Brexit on June 23, 2016, triggering political and market turmoil. /VCG Photo

Another hotly debated issue is that Britain's withdrawal from the EU could trigger a domino effect that will encourage some politicians to push harder for Scottish independence.

Professor Shi pointed out that the possibility is very low. "If Brexit goes smoothly, the UK's economy will get stronger, then Scotland will not want to leave the UK; if it doesn't go as planned, the British people will unite together. They are not likely to create another new crisis as the old one remains unresolved."

As for the direction of China-Britain post-Brexit relations, professor Shi noted that more time and information will be needed before seeing how Brexit will pan out.

Shi said some of China's investments in Britain are aimed at the whole EU market. When Britain leaves the bloc, those investments will go to other parts of Europe, and there are also a great amount of investment from China that are UK market-specific, but Shi believes this part will not be affected.

Shi added that Britain's trade relations with the EU would not be as close as they used to be after Brexit. That means the UK will seek to strengthen its ties with other partners, such as China.

(CGTN's Du Zhongyan also contributed to the story.)