Opinions
2019.02.25 08:20 GMT+8

Opinion: Gains expected at Kim-Trump summit, but no big breakthrough

Chu Xiaoji

Editor's note: The article is based on an interview with Li Nan, an associate research fellow at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the interviewee's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

From February 27 to 28, Kim Jong Un, the leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), will meet with his American counterpart Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam. It will be the second Trump-Kim summit following their first meeting in Singapore on June 12 last year.

Li Nan, an associate research fellow of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is optimistic about the prospects of this week's summit. In his opinion, Hanoi is a continuation of the Singapore summit and will bring benefits going beyond the two countries.

Building on the Singapore summit

As far as East Asia is concerned, the great catalyst in 2018 was the breakthrough in U.S.-DPRK relations. According to Li, although U.S.-DPRK ties have not always been smooth, the overall trend this past year is upward. Since the first summit, both countries have undergone great transformation.

Since the beginning of 2019, Trump has been facing great pressure at home. The U.S. government shutdown has left him in a bad situation. 

 As Wang Jianwei, a professor at Macao University points out, improving U.S.-DPRK ties has always been treated as one of the most notable achievements by Trump. Given the pressure of the 2020 presidential election, Trump intends to attract more voters by taking advantage of his meeting with Kim.   

Trump Twitter

As for the DPRK, Li reckons that a peaceful environment is the premise of economic growth – the DPRK's central occupation this year. It is only through improving relations with the U.S. that the DPRK is able to create a favorable environment for economic development.

"The DPRK hopes to consolidate the results of the year and deepen cooperation with the U.S. for the purpose of economic and safety reasons," he told CGTN.

Li is also optimistic because he believes the two leaders are willing to work together.

Specifics needed

Although Li believes that the second summit is beneficial to both sides, he admits that they are unlikely to get down to brass tacks this time.

"Due to insufficient preparations for the summit, there will be no agreement on the specific route to denuclearization. But two sides will introduce a more specific plan than at the Singapore summit," he told CGTN.

U.S. President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un walk after lunch at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island in Singapore, June 12, 2018. /VCG Photo

As Li points out, it is not hard for Kim and Trump to reach a consensus on a phased, synchronized approach to denuclearization, but to formulate a comprehensive and detailed roadmap will be a challenge. A more likely way for both sides is to draw up a roadmap that includes recent specific steps and measures.

From the research fellow's point of view, the DPRK will permit an international check of its nuclear or missile testing grounds that have already been destroyed or removed. In addition, it will likely declare some of its nuclear facilities or plans.

When it comes to the U.S., Trump has recognized the complexity and long-term nature of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and he, therefore, has given up his tough stance.

Hence, Li believes that the U.S. will commit to further reducing the number and size of joint military exercises with the Republic of Korea (ROK) as well as the threat the drills generate, to resume and strengthen humanitarian assistance to the DPRK and to prepare to establish a liaison office with the DPRK.

Further conversations play a key role

He believes that despite the different understandings between the U.S and DPRK regarding denuclearization, they will be able to tackle it as long as they keep talking.

"Further conversations are really helpful when they have a standstill once again in the future," Li told CGTN.

DPRK leader Kim Jong Un (C) departs Pyongyang Station for the second Trump-Kim summit meeting in Pyongyang, February 23, 2019. /VCG Photo 

Yang Wenjing, the director of American Studies at China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, argues that because of their different understandings towards denuclearization, the negotiations will take a long time.

According to Guo Xuetang, a professor at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Washington and Pyongyang need to keep working on improving their ties no matter how difficult it is. 

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)

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