Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a UK-based political analyst. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

As reported, Chinese President Xi Jinping might meet U.S. President Donald Trump during the upcoming G20 summit in Argentina. Given the deadlock in the trade conflicts between China and the U.S., observers around the world are hoping that the summit can result in a productive meeting between the two giants and lead to a much-needed ceasefire in their mounting trade tensions.

Although it is difficult to predict an outcome exactly, not least owing to the unpredictability of Trump, there is nevertheless some scope for a positive breakthrough, which has not been ruled out by either party as being in their best interests.

Why is there space for optimism? Whilst China has been firm in defending its interests against what it perceives as economic aggression by the Trump administration, Xi will go into this summit with an open mind in search of common ground.

For all the rhetoric in the western media about the confrontation between the U.S. and China, Beijing has in fact been restrained in its responses toward Washington's sometimes provocative actions. One of the most consistent messages of China's foreign policy is that whilst Beijing and Washington may have disagreements or divergent interests, they ultimately are not seeking confrontation.

Instead, Beijing has been open to accepting cooperation with America and a relationship which is productive. The fundamental reality is that in order to thrive and prosper, both countries need stable ties with the other.

However, the more pressing question is whether the U.S. administration itself is willing to make a deal? In Trump's own words, more than likely, but there have been some conflicting messages of late coming from Washington. Just over a week ago during the APEC meetings, people feared the worst when U.S. Vice President Mike Pence arrived on a chauvinistic mission to try and hijack the conference with a strident anti-China agenda. The disagreements were so severe that the gathering ultimately ended without a joint statement. Pence would make a number of antagonistic remarks, including a threat to heighten the trade war to include all of China's exports to the United States

Does that spell bad news for Argentina though? Not necessarily. Trump isn't Pence, and the latter is often sent out to foreign policy events in order to convey an image of toughness and posture on behalf of Washington, often sounding harsher and more zealous than the actual policy stance in practice. Part of it is theatrics for domestic political consumption.

We saw it all before when he attended the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang, the Republic of  Korea (ROK). He spoke extremely harshly about the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), then before we knew it negotiations started and he disappeared out of the picture. There are parallels here. The Trump administration does like to present itself in an intimidating way and make highly irrational threats, but when the President himself senses there is political scope for him to “claim victory” and tactfully avoid worst-case scenarios, he's very much open to negotiations and compromise.

Therefore, if there are some trade concessions on the table, Trump is likely to take them for the time being and show it as a vindication of his policy, which will, in turn, give him face and justification to cool things down. As despite the often-erratic nature of his comments, he is very much aware that if he chooses to intensify the trade war then it will certainly cause economic damage to the U.S. If his tariffs double in January and things start to go wrong, there is always the risk of it backfiring on him.

As a result, we shouldn't write anything off and there is a decent chance some pragmatic agreements could emerge from the G20. Will it resolve everything? Unlikely. Will it change Trump's policies towards China completely? Also unlikely. But what it would serve to achieve is to act as a respite, giving both leaders breathing space and the chance to stabilize relations. Whether it will work out, in the long run, remains to be seen. Either way though, we should anticipate a meeting which is pleasant and cordial than confrontational. It won't be a repeat of the APEC meetings.

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