The weakening economic situation in Lebanon due to its political deadlock over government formation has started to have an impact on its most vulnerable populations, leading to a surge in number of Syrian and Palestinian refugees trying to flee to the eastern Mediterranean island nation of Cyprus in what could be dubbed as a new migrant crisis for Europe.

It has been more than seven months since parliamentary elections were held in Lebanon on May 6. Local reports suggest that the government formation, which has been delayed several times, has now been pushed back to early 2019, increasing the specter of a looming economic turmoil in one of the world's most indebted countries.

Lebanon's government owes about 150 percent of the national gross domestic product (GDP) to various international lenders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already warned that Beirut must urgently undertake fiscal reforms.

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"The long wait for a Lebanese government is economically perilous. The country has the third largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, and it is rising. According to a recent World Bank report, 'Lebanon's macro-financial conditions are under heavy scrutiny', and the debt will continue to rise 'in an unsustainable path' toward 155 percent of GDP by the end of this year," Mohanad Hage Ali, director of communications at the Carnegie Middle East Center, stated in his latest report on the subject.

With no government in place, Lebanon also risks losing 11 billion U.S. dollars in soft loans and grants from international donors who pledged the aid at the International Conference in Support of Lebanon Development and Reforms (CEDRE) conference held in Paris on April 6.

Naturally, the crisis is taking a heavy toll on refugees, who are already struggling to make their ends meet. 

The problem is magnified further as Lebanon hosts the most refugees per capita in the world. The country of 6 million people is home to around a million Syrian migrants and 450,000 Palestinian refugees according to the latest figures from the UNHCR and the UNRWA.

The latest data from the UNHCR till the end of 2017 shows that for every 1,000 inhabitants in the eastern Mediterranean country, there are about 164 refugees. Those numbers only include refugees under the mandate of the UNHCR. However, if Palestinian refugees under the mandate of the UNRWA (of which some have lived in Lebanon for 70 years) are included, the count rises to 250 refugees per 1,000 people, stated a report by Statista. 

Hazardous journey

"Given the mounting difficulties, Syrian and Palestinian refugees are taking to the sea again, seeking to reach the shores of the European Union. This time their target is Cyprus, around 260 kilometers away from Lebanon's shores," Hage Ali stated in the report.

The situation first came to light this September when the Lebanese navy responded to a sinking boat with at least 39 Syrian nationals and other refugees on board who, according to officials, "were heading to Cyprus via an illegal route". A five-year-old Palestinian child died in the mishap.

A month later, the Lebanese navy and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, rescued 32 Syrian refugees after the boat in which they attempted to reach Cyprus broke down.

According to a statement by the UNIFIL, the "small white boat", carrying 19 men, six women and seven children, was stranded at sea northwest of Beirut. "The boat was out of fuel and the passengers had been without food and water for four days," it said.

These accidents, Lebanese authorities say, have not deterred the refugees from making the hazardous journey as they were buoyed by previous successful bids to reach Cyprus. 

'Xenophobic tendencies'

"Cyprus is already struggling with the growing numbers, having registered, per capita, a record number of asylum seekers in Europe this year. In the period September 1-4, 140 refugees arrived on the island. In the first eight months of 2018, some 4,000 asylum requests were filed, a 55-percent increase from last year. The Cypriot media have published regular reports of Syrian refugee boats arriving on the island from Lebanon and Syria," Hage Ali stated.

"As in the rest of Europe, the growing refugee flow is feeding xenophobic tendencies," he added citing Cypriot politician, Christos Rotsas, who told the Cyprus Mail that he was establishing a new movement to address the flow of migrants from the eastern Mediterranean. The hardline politician also warned that there could be terrorists among the refugees.

Lebanon's inadequate response due to the ongoing political and economic turmoil has only added to these concerns.

"Since the overall cost of the refugee problem far exceeds the international aid that has been provided to Lebanon to deal with the situation, the Lebanese political establishment has no incentive to halt the departure of thousands of people to Europe. Indeed, many officials welcome the decline in refugee numbers," explained Hage Ali.

"If the political deadlock persists and the country's economic situation continues to deteriorate, the Lebanese coastline could become harder to manage as more refugees seek a better life elsewhere. This could potentially spark Europe's second refugee crisis in half a decade," he concluded.

(Cover photo: Cypriot civilian security officers guide young Syrian migrants at the Kokkinotrimithia refugee camp, west of the Cypriot capital Nicosia, September 7, 2016, after the boat in which they were being smuggled reportedly ran into trouble off the island's northwest coast on the previous day. /VCG Photo)