Migrant labor may be the easiest solution for falling birthrates
Updated 17:20, 14-Feb-2019
Bertram Niles
["north america","europe","africa"]
‍A report this week suggesting that Germany will need at least 260,000 new migrant workers every year for the next four decades to meet labor shortages is another stark reminder of a worrying decline in the birthrate among industrialized nations.
And this is occurring at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment appears to be flourishing in many areas of the rich world.
Germany's labor force is expected to contract by about a third by 2060 without immigration, according to the report by the Bertelsmann Foundation – a situation that would be seriously damaging to the economy.
The cabinet of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose popularity has suffered because of her controversial policy that opened doors to asylum seekers and refugees, is clearly aware of the dangers ahead. In December, ministers approved a draft law aimed at attracting skilled foreign labor, though it is likely to meet resistance among conservatives in her own party.
German birthrates are the highest among immigrants. /VCG Photo

German birthrates are the highest among immigrants. /VCG Photo

It is ironic that figures released last year by the German Federal Statistics Office showed that the nation's birthrate rose in 2016 to its highest level in four decades because of a surge in births among migrant women.
The rate moved to 1.59 children per woman (1.46 among German women, 2.28 among foreign women), though that is still well below the internationally recognized figure of 2.1 that is considered necessary for population replenishment.
The country's central bank has previously warned that economic growth will be in jeopardy from the middle of the next decade because there will be fewer young workers to replace those who are retiring.
Germany is not alone. Japan, which has worked harder than most to restrict immigration, finally gave in towards the end of 2018 by amending its labor laws with the goal of bringing in an estimated 345,000 foreign workers within the next five years.  
It has an aging workforce – 28 percent of the population is over 65 and birth rates have been falling for some time.  
Japan's population has been shrinking for some time. /VCG Photo

Japan's population has been shrinking for some time. /VCG Photo

Japan has a jobless rate that many nations would die for – just above 2 percent – but reports a labor shortage in every prefecture in the country, which the Nikkei Asian Review said was the first time that the country has faced such a situation.
The government has denied opposition arguments that it is seeking to permit immigration through the back door. Opponents have also raised concerns that more foreign workers could result in unsustainable pressures on welfare services and lead to an increase in crime.
Across much of the Western world, the picture is much the same. A report that reviewed global birth trends from 1950 to 2017 and published by the Lancet last November found that 91 nations, mainly in Europe and North and South America, weren't producing enough babies to maintain their current populations –  in effect, on average, a woman is giving birth to fewer than two children.
The birthrate decline in the wealthiest nations was laid bare in the report. In 1950, high-income countries accounted for 24 percent of the global population, but in 2017, the population of these countries accounted for 14 percent. 
And one of the authors of the report, Professor Allan Lopez from the University of Melbourne, predicts that this share will get "lower and lower".
“I think what we're seeing is the general impact of development,” Lopez told Australian radio. “As countries develop, family sizes decrease for a number of reasons, primarily because with development comes modernization and it's inconvenient to have larger family sizes in urban areas.” 
In addition, greater educational opportunities for women have been linked to fewer babies being born as well as greater access to contraception and employment.
Global birthrates show a mixed picture. /VCG Photo

Global birthrates show a mixed picture. /VCG Photo

It seemed not so long ago that media reports were filled with alarmist doomsday stories about world population growth. Not so anymore. According to the Lancet report, the average woman worldwide in 1950 gave birth to 4.7 children over the course of their lifetime. Last year, that figure was just 2.4 children.
The upshot is countries that in theory can afford to have more children are not doing so. In those that can least afford to support greater numbers, the trend is going in the opposite direction with the Lancet report pointing to 104 countries where high birth rates are driving population increases.
The nations with the highest fertility rates (average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime) are mostly in Africa: Niger – 7.1; Chad – 6.7; Somalia – 6.1; Mali – 6.0; Afghanistan – 6.0; South Sudan – 5.9; Burkina Faso – 5.4; Burundi – 5.3; Uganda – 5.2; Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, Nigeria (all 5.1).
Most experts argue that low fertility rates are problematic for societies, and that explains why countries like Sweden, France,  Singapore, Japan and Canada, have spent decades trying to raise their game.
Immigrants may help birthrates
Some have developed family-friendly policies, such as tax breaks or bonus payments for multiple births, child savings accounts, and increased maternity leave and daycare services. Denmark even tried a provocative media and advertising procreation campaign with the tagline "Do it for Denmark".
But the situation in Germany and Japan suggests that there is no magic wand, and, until people change their minds about having more children, immigration, though contentious, may be the quickest fix for a shrinking workforce. And it is certainly one way for the rich to help the poor.
As in Germany, immigrants may also help with the birthrate. In France, which has Europe's highest at 1.88, reports have suggested that the numbers have been boosted by immigrants whose rate is estimated to be above 2.8 percent.
In all but two of America's 50 states, immigrants have boosted the overall number of births over the last 25 years, according to the Economist. The decline in fertility in recent years means that the US population is not able to replace itself through reproduction alone, adds a New Scientist article.
But not everybody is being negative about falling fertility. Some have suggested that lower population growth could buy time to address such issues as climate change and global hunger.