Editor's note: Dr. Wali Aslam is a senior lecturer in International Relations at the Department of Politics, the University of Bath. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
On March 29, 2017, Theresa May, the prime minister of the United Kingdom, triggered the process of leaving the European Union (EU). The UK government decided to invoke Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union, meaning that the UK is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, 2019.
With the British withdrawal from the EU only months away, one key question has been raised: How will Brexit impact the UK's status as a great international power?
Though not as influential as it has been in the past, the UK still enjoys considerable political clout on the world stage. It continues to maintain strong links with its former colonies via the Commonwealth. Its major cities, including London, Birmingham and Glasgow, are home to communities originating from almost every country in the world.
British views are given great importance in international forums such as the UN Security Council.
Hundreds of thousands of pro-EU supporters take part in the People's Vote march followed by a rally in Parliament Square to demand a final say on the Brexit deal in London, October 20, 2018. /VCG Photo
Hundreds of thousands of pro-EU supporters take part in the People's Vote march followed by a rally in Parliament Square to demand a final say on the Brexit deal in London, October 20, 2018. /VCG Photo
However, is it all set to change? Will Brexit leave the UK better or worse off? The answer to that question depends on who you ask.
Those who champion Brexit argue that it will have little or no impact on Britain's standing as a great power in international society. They argue that, if anything, it will free the UK from the "shackles" of the EU, giving it energy to focus on its global trade and economic links with a positive political dividend.
According to this opinion, Brexit will be a major boost to the British standing in the world.
Many who believe that Brexit is a bad idea argue that Brexit will affect the UK (and to a lesser extent the EU) negatively in every possible way.
They believe that the UK will be worse off economically when it pulls away from one of the largest trading blocs in the world.
For them, the mere act of withdrawing from the EU sends a negative message to the entire world. It gives an impression of the UK as a country that is not very welcoming of outsiders. It wants to shut its doors and insulate itself from the world.
What can we learn from these two broad debates?
It is true that the average person in Asia and Africa does not know much about the intricate details of how the EU works and what Brexit actually means.
For them, the UK is a preeminent power in international society and will continue to remain so regardless of Brexit. It has a rich (and often controversial) history, a global language and a truly international presence.
That means that in the near future, people will continue to expect the UK to play a role as an influential global power.
British Prime Minister Theresa May holds a press conference after the second day of the EU leaders summit at the European Council in Brussels, October 18, 2018. /VCG Photo
British Prime Minister Theresa May holds a press conference after the second day of the EU leaders summit at the European Council in Brussels, October 18, 2018. /VCG Photo
In international society, perceptions matter a great deal. Much of a country's power depends on how the rest of the world perceives it.
It is unlikely that Brexit will change the way most of the world outside of Europe perceives the UK. However, a great deal depends on how the British political leaders handle Brexit. It will be particularly important to see whether they efficiently and skillfully treat the withdrawal from the EU as an opportunity to make their country a truly "global Britain."
Will they continue to capitalize on the positive perception the world has of the United Kingdom? More importantly, will British politicians be willing to invest the energy required to ensure that the country remains a member of the great powers' club? The signs so far do not point in that direction.
The internal chaos in the British government – and in particular the Conservative Party – with the recent resignations of Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit Minister David Davis, the British political elites do not seem to show the signs to be willing (and ready) to take on that challenge.
The Conservative Party remains disunited. There is no agreement in the party (or indeed the country) on the shape of the final deal that will pave the way for the impending British withdrawal from the European Union and – crucially – the European Union has not agreed to anything.
Given this scenario, it is unlikely that the statesmen and women and the two major political parties will come together after Brexit to assert Britain's influence on the world stage.
The internal tensions and quibbles will not magically disappear after the withdrawal from the EU. If anything, Brexit is set to make the divisions more entrenched for the foreseeable future.
Furthermore, the UK will take an economic hit (though there remain disagreements over its extent) which might prevent the UK from maintaining embassies and diplomatic staff in as many countries as it does today. The country may find it challenging to provide foreign aid to war-torn countries of Asia and Africa as it does currently.
A politically divided and economically restrained UK will not be able to continue playing the role of a great global power. As Abraham Lincoln said, "a house divided against itself cannot stand." If the internal squabbles continue (and there is no sign of them stopping), the country will face major political instability for the foreseeable future.
As far as the long term is concerned, it will depend on whether future generations can rise above the poisonous divisions and build on Britain's past clout to ensure that it continues to assert itself as a great power, and one very much at the heart of international society.
Brexit is a major opportunity for future generations of British political and opinion leaders but only if they are ready to accept the challenge.
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