Kim Jong Un should beware of a return to 'fire and fury'

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Editor's note: Chris Deacon is a postgraduate researcher in politics and international relations at the University of London and previously worked as an international commercial lawyer. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

In recent days the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has shown bullish confidence, directly attacking top U.S. officials involved in negotiations – both Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton – as well as testing a new "tactical guided weapon."

This comes after the failure of the Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and DPRK leader Kim Jong Un in February, which was widely criticized for achieving nothing of substance, and a general stalling in the progress of talks between the two countries.

Trump's words regarding Kim Jong Un remain warm for the time being. But as the race to become the Democratic Party candidate to face Trump in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections heats up, Kim should beware of Trump's whimsy.

While for the past 18 months Trump has shown an attitude toward Kim Jong Un so positive and, at times, even affectionate that some in the U.S. have recoiled with horror, it was not so long ago that Trump was threatening the complete destruction of the DPRK at the United Nations.

Trump is naturally very aware of his domestic image back home. His personality also tends to mean he attaches himself strongly to "wins" and completely disowns "losses." In the context of the next presidential election – essentially a referendum on Trump's record thus far – this tendency will be accentuated even more.

U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 18, 2019. /VCG Photo

In this regard, and with progress in talks with the DPRK stalling, there appear to be three scenarios for how this issue will be treated by Trump in the run up to next year's election.

Firstly, there may be some great breakthrough in U.S.-DPRK talks. Like many apparent breakthroughs with the DPRK, it may be short-lived. But it may be enough to allow Trump to show off positive achievements with his DPRK policy such that relations remain relatively cordial and Kim Jong Un can rest easy.

Secondly, there is the scenario that talks continue to stall, but Trump allows the issue to fade somewhat from the public's conscience. He disowns the issue to some extent, perhaps blaming others in his team for the lack of progress, but generally puts the issue on the backburner so that it does not become a major talking point in the election.

Once again, there is unlikely to be any major concern for Kim Jong Un in such a scenario.

The third scenario is the most concerning for Kim, and there are a variety of possible catalysts for it to occur. In this scenario, Trump, frustrated by the lack of progress with talks and examples of provocation on the part of the DPRK, returns to his "fire and fury" rhetoric.

He determines that he has publicly invested too much in this issue for him to be able to brush it aside, and perhaps Democratic rivals seek to take advantage of his perceived failure.

U.S. President Donald Trump (L) speaks with DPRK leader Kim Jong Un (2nd R) during the second U.S.-DPRK summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, February 28, 2019. /VCG Photo

In response, Trump attempts to look tough to his electoral base: he will not be messed around on the international stage.

If he is doing particularly badly in polling, or more damaging accusations emerge regarding the Russian collusion investigation, then it may even be determined that some foreign policy aggression could provide a valuable distraction and poll boost.

As to whether Trump would really go as far as to take military action against the DPRK is another question. But with John Bolton, in particular, advising Trump on these issues, it surely cannot be discounted as a possibility

This should be deeply concerning for Kim Jong Un, and may provide an incentive in the coming months to give way on certain sticking points to allow a breakthrough.

Trump is not an easy man to second guess, and any hint that he will return to his previous violent threats to the DPRK should be treated with extreme caution by Kim Jong Un when a presidential election is around the corner.

With Kim planning to travel to Russia – likely, Vladivostok – in the coming days, in order to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, it is surely in his mind that building a broader regional coalition that may come to his defense in the event of such a turn in U.S. policy can only extremely helpful.

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