Expert: I don't think Trump will win stand-off on border wall
Updated 21:02, 15-Jan-2019
CGTN's Global Watch
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The U.S. government shutdown has now officially become the longest in the U.S. history, as it drags into its 22nd day. Hundreds of thousands of government workers are not being paid. The impasse is due to President Trump's demand for a border wall.
“I don't think he will win the stand-off,” said Pratik Chougule, a former Trump campaign policy coordinator and political-prediction market trader.
“I think there are two ways that he could win. One would be to win on policy, by getting a border wall. The other would be a political win, where he emerges from the shutdown with higher approval ratings, more popularity and better numbers going into his re-election. Neither today looks like they are likely to happen,” Chougule said.
 A Trump baby blimp is seen as a motorcade passes supporters and protesters, as U.S. President Donald Trump travels to U.S. Border Patrol McAllen Station for a roundtable event on January 10, 2019, in McAllen, ‍Texas. /VCG Photo

 A Trump baby blimp is seen as a motorcade passes supporters and protesters, as U.S. President Donald Trump travels to U.S. Border Patrol McAllen Station for a roundtable event on January 10, 2019, in McAllen, ‍Texas. /VCG Photo

If Trump loses, he may face a double down for not keeping his campaign promise of the wall, and for triggering the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Chougule explained what could possibly happen if Trump eventually lost the stand-off.
“If he loses, what will happen is: one, his supporters will recognize that perhaps the most important issue for them, which is the border wall, was one that Donald Trump could not in fact deliver on. The other will be coming right around the time when the Mueller report will be released, and Trump will be facing the media with the aftermath of the major policy defeat on the border wall. And he will also be an administration that is mashed in the scandal.”
The division over a border wall may be the true nature of this political disaster, and even a preemptive move for the presidential election in 2020. To this, Chougule said the shutdown is a symptom of a deep, longstanding, and serious political divide on immigration and border enforcement in the U.S.  
“If you take a look at why Donald Trump became a first Republican nominee for president, and why he was elected, a big part of it is a recognition of the fact that many Americans have long wanted action on border enforcement and they haven't got it from conventional politicians. The reality, however, right now is that neither Trump nor the Democratic leadership really has a mandate to compromise on the issue,” he said.
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