Denuclearization remains elusive on the Korean Peninsula

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02:59

The past year has seen a significant improvement in the relations between Washington, Pyongyang and Seoul, but despite three breakthrough summits between the leaders of the two Koreas – and one dramatic meeting between US President Donald Trump and the top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un – the ultimate goal of denuclearization is still elusive.

After more than a decade of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile tests, the launch pads and detonation sites in the DPRK have gone silent – for now – thanks to a bilateral charm offensive that has seen three summits this year between the two Koreas, and promises of more to come.

The most recent summit this month delivered momentum in the form of promises from the DPRK to let inspectors in, and an offer to demolish its primary nuclear weapons complex in exchange for concessions from Washington.

DPRK's leader Kim Jong Un (R) talks to ROK's President Moon Jae-in during a visit to Samjiyon guesthouse near Mount Paektu in Samjiyon, Sept. 20, 2018. /KCNA Photo

"The DPRK has agreed to permanently close Tongchang-ri engine testing site and its missile launch facility in the attendance of experts from relevant nations," Moon Jae-in, president of the Republic of Korea (ROK), said in remarks delivered after a meeting with Kim.

The two leaders were in Pyongyang for this summit, but their next meeting may be in Seoul.

"I promised President Moon Jae-in to visit Seoul in the near future," said Kim.

Each side stands to gain from the detente. The DPRK wants to open its economy to foreign investment and development. The ROK wants reunification and denuclearization.

"The Koreas have made some real strides in confidence-building and they're talking about the elimination of a number of posts along the demilitarized zone," said Stephen Noerper, senior director for policy at the Korea Society. "They've already established a liaison office at Kaesong, and the idea of communication more effectively across that formerly fortified border is important, is dramatic."

The thawing of relations between the two Koreas made it possible for a historic meeting in Singapore this summer between Trump and Kim.

US President Donald Trump and DPRK's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands after signing documents during a summit at the Capella Hotel on the resort island of Sentosa, Singapore, June 12, 2018. /VCG Photo

Washington wants complete and verifiable denuclearization from Pyongyang, while Pyongyang wants international sanctions lifted and a role on the world stage, said Maria Zeitseva, professor of political science at Yeshiva University.

"They want the suspension or the reduction of sanctions. They want security guarantees from Washington. They want normalization of relations, and they really want to be seen as a genuine player in international relations. The summit with Trump in June was a first step."

The Singapore summit led to a promising agreement to denuclearize, but offered no timetable for the destruction of DPRK's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

It's very difficult to discern from the DPRK government what their intentions are – if they're really honest in terms of denuclearization, or if they'll continue to use this thaw to their advantage in a positive way for both East and West, but also continue their weapons program on the side, Michael John Williams, professor of international relations at New York University, said.

Meanwhile, UN Security Council sanctions remain in place, despite contention among member states on their implementation.

Moscow and Beijing want the international sanctions eased to reward Pyongyang for opening talks and suspending missile tests, but the US is insisting the sanctions remain in place, as leverage.

DPRK sanctions and denuclearization will be key topics of discussion during the high-level UN General Assembly this week, when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo hosts a special session at the Security Council.