Chinese Premier Li Keqiang begins a lengthy overseas trip, the top US diplomat lands in Beijing, results from the first round of Brazil's elections are due, a crucial state election will take place in Germany and there could be developments in relations between Ankara and Washington.
Pompeo in Beijing
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Monday after talks with Democratic People's Republic of Korea leader Kim Jong Un and Republic of Korea President Moon Jae-in. In the wake of US Vice President Mike Pence's various accusations against China, dismissed as "groundless" and "slander" by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, there will be plenty to talk about beyond the Korean Peninsula. A fresh development is likely on Wednesday, when the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China is due to release a report.
Li heads overseas
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has a busy diplomatic schedule, meeting Shanghai Cooperation Organization heads of government in Tajikistan mid-week before flying to Europe on a trip that will last until October 19. Li will pay an official visit to the Netherlands and then head to Belgium for the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting summit in Brussels.
Bavaria votes
A consequential vote lies ahead in Germany, with state elections in Bavaria to be held on Sunday. Chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU party isn't on the ballot, but coalition ally the CSU is – and electioneering ahead of the local polls was the key context to disputes within the governing coalition. Interior Minister Horst Seehofer sought to counter the threat to his CSU party's majority from the far-right AfD by taking a harder line on immigration. The results in Bavaria could mark a turning point for the Merkel government, and polling is bleak for Seehofer – though it is the Greens, not the AfD, who appear to be eating into the CSU's vote share.
Brazil runoffs?
Polls suggest right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro will come out top in the first round of voting in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday – but fall short of a majority. Workers Party candidate Fernando Haddad, expected to face Bolsonaro in a run-off on October 28, has a visit with former leader Lula, in jail in Curitiba, scheduled for Monday. After weeks of rallies and protests, the fallout will be closely watched. Another runoff could come in Rio de Janeiro, where former Brazil striker Romario is expected to come in second to the city's former mayor Eduardo Paes in the race to be governor.
Brunson hearing
Relations between Ankara and Washington have soured over recent months, with the detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson in Turkey grabbing headlines amid an array of disagreements. Brunson will be in court on October 12 in Izmir, which could lead to a calming – or escalation – of tensions over issues including Turkey's relations with Iran. US-Iran strains will also be back in the news when the International Criminal Court begins hearing a fresh case brought by Tehran against Washington on Monday.
Day-by-day
Monday: US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Beijing, President of the Republic of Angola Joao Manuel Goncalves Lourenco begins a three-day state visit to China, the UN's top court hears a case brought against the US by Iran seeking to recover billions in frozen assets, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visits Serbia after announcing the alliance's largest military exercises in decades, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan begins a two-day state visit to Hungary.
Tuesday: Annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank begin in Bali, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe chairs a summit attended by the leaders of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam, and Polish President Andrzej Duda delivers a speech on The Future of Europe.
Wednesday: The International Monetary Fund publishes its latest World Economic Outlook, and the US Congressional-Executive Commission on China releases its annual report.
Thursday: French President Emmanuel Macron is expected in Armenia for the International Organization of French-speaking Countries summit.
Friday: A court hearing takes place in Turkey in the case of US pastor Andrew Brunson, and senate elections are held in the Czech Republic with 27 out of 81 seats at stake.
Saturday: Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim – set to become the country's prime minister in two years according to a coalition deal – contests a by-election to return to parliament.
Sunday: APEC Foreign Ministers meet in Papua New Guinea, voters in the German state of Bavaria go to the polls, and Belgium holds local elections.