Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently visited Ankara for two days to discuss multiple issues with Turkish leaders. Although Turkey-US relations have been increasingly strained during the past days with the escalation of the “trade war” between Ankara and Washington, the top agenda of Lavrov’s visit was the Syria issue, at a time when the Syrian government forces have been trying to take the last few enclaves of the rebels.

It is beyond dispute that Turkey, Russia and Iran have become the most important players in the Syria issue, especially since those three states created the Astana peace process aiming to settle the Syrian civil war in early 2017. The trilateral mechanism has brought about the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syria in a bid to reduce violence and create the necessary conditions for the lasting and promising political settlement inside Syria.

Besides the Astana Process, Russia also formulated and directed the Sochi Process with the objective of replacing the “war paradigm” with the “peace paradigm” through organizing representatives from both the Syrian government and several opposition parties to draft the Syrian constitution and persuading regional states, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to adopt a more “pragmatic” approach to the Syria issue.

For Moscow, the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad is an important regional ally in the Middle East. Russia’s policy in Syria is to eliminate Islamic terrorists and extremists by consolidating the Syrian government's authority in major areas of central, southern and western Syria. During the past months, with Russia’s support, Syrian government forces have successfully retaken many areas from rebels in eastern Ghouta in central Syria, Homs in the north and Derra in the south. 

Among the four de-escalation zones that were established last year, only Idlib is under control of Syrian rebels composed by some Islamic extremists and moderate forces that are protected by Turkey. After several military victories, it is highly likely that Idlib might become the next target for Syrian government forces.

Therefore, the Idlib issue has become the top issue because it is of very much concern to both Turkey and Russia. Turkey still has a sizable military deployment in Idlib and any kind of military offensive would put the lives of Turkish troops in danger.

Furthermore, according to Turkey’s plan, Idlib might become the “refugee center” for more than 3 million Syrian immigrants inside Turkey. In addition, it is an important base for many Syrian opposition militants who are supported by Turkey. Therefore, the region is a valuable chip in Ankara’s future relationship with Damascus.

Although the Syrian government receives support from Russia, Moscow cannot determine Damascus. The Syrian government hopes to retake all its territories, and its intention will be supported, as it has always been supported, by Tehran. 

Russia encourages talks between Damascus and Ankara, under mediation from Moscow, to set up a coordinated arrangement in Idlib that satisfies each side. Meanwhile, Russia is facilitating contacts between Syria's government and the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Ankara has labeled a terrorist group.

Given Turkey is very much preoccupied with the ongoing row with Washington, Ankara will not receive support from the US and its NATO allies once Syria's government forces launch military offensives in Idlib. Turkey will likely be left alone to deal with the potentially devastating consequences.