What can we expect from Macron's visit to US?

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Europe

While global conflicts rage on such as the trade friction and the Syrian war, French President Emmanuel Macron is meeting with his US counterpart Donald Trump in a highly anticipated visit.

Trump has been in office for 15 months, but this is the first state visit that he has hosted for a foreign leader, a sign that the event will be of some significance. As we know, Trump’s style is a marked departure from those of his predecessors. This has troubled many countries, but Macron seems to have built a solid relationship with Trump despite their differences.

The US national flag and French national flag are seen on the Executive Office Building in Washington, DC, on April 20, 2018, the week before the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron. /VCG Photo

After Trump's visit to France on Bastille Day last July, Macron has talked with Trump by phone more than with any other leader. One week ago, France launched military actions together with the US and the UK, a move which has also strengthened Franco-American relations. In addition, France's influence has been growing both in Europe and on the global stage since Macron won the presidential election last year, which makes him valuable to Trump, who himself needs partners that can deal with international affairs.

But this does not mean that the visit is going to be easy for Macron. A gap still exists between the two leaders in some of the issues that they will discuss.

Visitors tour the Mansion at Mount Vernon, the estate of the first US President George Washington, in Mount Vernon, Virginia, April 18, 2018, prior to the historic site hosting next week's scheduled dinner between US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. /VCG Photo

One of the top priorities during Macron’s visit is to get permanent exemptions from US steel and aluminum tariffs for the European Union before May 1, when the temporary exemption is set to expire. According to US media, the US trade representative has laid out five conditions, including limiting steel and aluminum exports to the US, as well as cooperating with the US against other countries in terms of trade.

The issue of trade is both urgent and important for Europe. The EU and the US have the world’s largest bilateral trade in goods at over 632 billion euros in 2017. This means that the EU does not want to risk having a trade war with the US.

However, it is difficult for the EU, which advocates for the WTO mechanism and multilateralism, to accept Trump’s way of dealing with trade disputes. Since France is a core country within the EU, Macron will inevitably exchange views with Trump about this. But it is difficult to expect a concrete deal from this visit because Trump still needs to talk with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will visit the US later this week.

Tourists buy souvenirs near light poles with a US national flag, French national flag (C) and Washington, DC, flag flying in Washington, DC, on April 20, 2018, the week before the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron. /VCG Photo

Among Macron’s other concerns is the issue of security, as he wants the US to keep a military presence in Syria after the strikes. Meanwhile, Trump is working to replace US troops with an allied Arab presence. For the Iran nuclear issue, France – together with other European partners – believes that the nuclear deal from 2015 should be implemented, but Trump set a deadline to “fix or nix” the deal on May 12. And it is almost certain that Macron will bring up acting on climate change, but it does not look like Trump is bringing the US back into the Paris Agreement.

With a state visit, Macron is in a good place to lobby Trump on issues like trade and security. It’s also a good test of how much Macron can do to influence Trump’s policies with their positive personal relationship.

(Liu Mingli is Deputy Director of Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The article reflects the author’s opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.)