Analysis: Oman's reticent sultan takes center stage amid looming Mideast peace process
Updated 18:35, 02-Dec-2018
By Abhishek G Bhaya
["other","Middle East"]
As the world marks the UN-mandated International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People on Friday, the understated Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said of Oman is emerging as a potential harbinger of peace in the decades-long Middle Eastern conflict, particularly after last month's back-to-back visits of the Palestinian and Israeli leaders to the Gulf sultanate.
Sultan Qaboos, known for his subtle diplomacy, hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas during a much-publicized state visit from October 21 to 23 and subsequently held 'secret' talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on October 25 – a fact that was made public only after the Israeli leader was back home a day later – prompting Middle East watchers to speculate whether the 78-year-old statesman could bring the regional foes to the negotiating table with some even suggesting that Oman could serve as a back channel between Israel and its regional rival Iran.
After all, not too long ago the reticent Sultan Qaboos, who has cautiously nurtured an independent foreign policy for Oman maintaining strong ties with both the U.S. and Iran, played the role of an icebreaker between the two adversaries by holding backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran that eventually led to the landmark multilateral nuclear deal in 2015. It's another matter that the deal today is on shaky ground after U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally walked out of the pact earlier this year.
The initial secrecy surrounding Netanyahu's Muscat visit is understandable as Oman, like most Arab and Muslim nations, do not have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state; and had previously closed an Israeli trade office in the sultanate in 2000 in solidarity with the second Palestinian uprising. Netanyahu's rare visit makes Oman perhaps the first Arab or Gulf nation to have hosted an Israeli leader since the Middle East's longest crisis began in the mid-20th century.
Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu observe a map of Oman at the royal palace in Muscat, October 25, 2018. /Photo via Mohammed Mustafa

Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu observe a map of Oman at the royal palace in Muscat, October 25, 2018. /Photo via Mohammed Mustafa

What could have come as a surprise to many in the region though was the sultanate's official acknowledgment of Israel as a "state" despite the Jewish nation not being recognized by a majority of the Islamic countries.
"When Oman described Israel as a state, that has been a surprising statement to many Arabs and Muslims. But to those who know Oman and its diplomacy, this is not a surprise at all," Shehab Makahleh, the director of Geostrategic Media Center, told CGTN Digital.
"The visit has not been a surprise to Iran as there were words doing the rounds in Muscat since the end of May 2018 about Oman facilitating talks between both Palestinians and Israelis and also between Israelis and Iranians to defuse tension in the region," Makaleh elaborated, suggesting that Iran is a key player in the regional dynamics and Oman's robust ties with its northern neighbor across the Strait of Hormuz makes it a strategic go-between in the region.
"Oman has already hosted talks with Netanyahu and the Iranian dispute with Israel was on the table because there will be no solution to the Palestinian issue without solving the Iranian Israeli conflict as well since all files are interrelated," he said.
There are already murmurs in the diplomatic corridors that once Muscat is able to find a middle ground between the Israelis and Palestinians, Sultan Qaboos could offer a perfect ground for Tel Aviv to talk peace with its arch-foe Iran.
Now, if that ever happens, it would perhaps be the most significant step towards bringing peace and stability to a region marred by conflicts for ages.

'Unprecedented diplomacy'

 Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (right) welcomes Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Muscat, October 22, 2018. /Photo via Mohammed Mustafa

 Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (right) welcomes Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Muscat, October 22, 2018. /Photo via Mohammed Mustafa

In an opinion piece for Ireland's national public broadcaster RTE, Moign Khawaja, a Ph.D. Student at the School of Law and Government, Dublin City University, asserted that the diplomatic moves initiated by Oman are unprecedented and should be seen as groundbreaking rather than merely symbolic.
"Sultan Qaboos reached out to Benjamin Netanyahu in a very direct and open manner because he understands that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is carving its Middle East foreign policy in accordance with Israeli interests," Khawaja reasoned.
"The Omani leader clearly thinks it is the right time to engage with the Israeli leadership again, given the Israel-Palestine peace process is practically dead... It seems Oman would like to get the peace process restarted or at least help with a reset," he added.
Earlier this month, Oman's minister responsible for foreign affairs Yousuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah, traveled to Ramallah to deliver a letter from Sultan Qaboos to Abbas briefing the Palestinian leader about Netanyahu's visit, Palestinian news agency WAFA reported mentioning no further details.
The Omani efforts gain prominence amid reports that the U.S. may present its Middle East peace plan, which Trump has described as the "Deal of the Century." in early 2019. Many analysts view Sultan Qaboos' efforts as a way to iron out the final differences between the various stakeholders including the Israelis and the Palestinians but also Iran, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and the U.K.
"Oman could not have gone ahead with the visit of an Israeli leader without being asked by the U.S. and the U.K. to play such as role to mend the fences between the Palestinians and the Israelis," Makaleh told CGTN Digital, hinting that Muscat may host several rounds of backchannel talks before the final deal is achieved. "Oman would facilitate [in the peace process], but all depends on the coming talks in Muscat between Palestinian and Israeli negotiators," he said.

A Nobel candidate?

Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (left) greets Iranian President Hassan Rouhani upon the later arrival in Muscat on February 15, 2017. /VCG Photo

Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said (left) greets Iranian President Hassan Rouhani upon the later arrival in Muscat on February 15, 2017. /VCG Photo

This latest move has enhanced Sultan Qaboos' stock among Middle East watchers, some of whom advocated that the Omani leader be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his incessant efforts towards the peaceful resolution of regional and global conflicts.
"Sultan Qaboos is deemed a diplomatic and visionary leader who believes in peace and non-intervention in other countries affairs. He is a very good example of how leaders in the Middle East should be," Makaleh said, adding that the septuagenarian statesman "deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the coming settlement of Palestinian-Israeli and Iranian-Israeli dispute."
"The flexible Omani policy to deal with complex situations has absorbed all these pressures and prevented their impact. This has provided Oman with international and regional confidence that has enabled Muscat to proceed further with its neutral policies in successive regional crises," he elaborated.
Echoing Makaleh's assessment of the Omani leader, Azeem Ibrahim, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Global Policy, in a piece for Al Arabiya, stated: "Though Oman's longtime leader, Sultan Qaboos, is not a household name in the West, he is a very effective and experienced behind-the-scenes operator."
"For a myriad of historical reasons, Oman can be thought of as a Middle Eastern equivalent to Switzerland. Oman has stood its political ground and has prospered historically as a trading nation able to bridge the gap and provide neutral meeting ground between rivals for centuries," Ibrahim elucidated.
"Given its neutrality, its conciliatory political culture and its historically-proven capacity to mediate between others, this can only be a good thing," he quipped.
Khawaja opined that regardless of what ensues next in the region, Oman would like to be judged as a nation striving for peace despite all the odds. If the old adage that "history is written by the victors" rings true, it can also be argued that "history has been changed by the peacemakers", he said.
(Cover Photo: This combination of two photos show Oman's Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said greeting (left) Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (right) during their visit to Muscat, on Oct. 22 and Oct. 25, 2018, respectively. /Photo via Mohammed Mustafa)
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