Opinion: What lies ahead for Japanese politics?
Updated 10:43, 04-Sep-2018
Xiong Lili
["china"]
Editor's note: Xiong Lili is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced that he will participate in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on September 20 during his visit to Aichi Prefecture and Mie Prefecture. He also confirmed that this will be his last time to contest the presidency of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced he will participate in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election in Kagoshima Prefecture on August 26, 2018./VCG Photo

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced he will participate in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election in Kagoshima Prefecture on August 26, 2018./VCG Photo

For both Japan and Abe, this election is of great significance. If Abe contests the LDP election, as he announced during a visit to a fishing facility in Kagoshima Prefecture in southern Kyushu on Sunday, and is re-elected LDP leader, it could pave the way for Japan to have its longest-serving prime minister.
Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election is due to take place in September, with constitutional amendments becoming the focus. A former party chief, Shigeru Ishiba, is now Abe's rival. 
On the whole, with regard to Article 9 of the pacifist constitution, both of the politicians are in favor of some form of amendment. However, Shinzo Abe is advocating for the plan to retain the provision of the second paragraph that does not maintain the force of war and denies the right to be a belligerent, and at the same time insert a new provision acknowledging the presence of the Self Defense Forces in Article 9.
Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran lawmaker of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, announces his candidacy in the September election for the party presidency during a news conference in Tokyo on August 10, 2018./VCG Photo

Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran lawmaker of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, announces his candidacy in the September election for the party presidency during a news conference in Tokyo on August 10, 2018./VCG Photo

Compared with Abe's proposal, the one by Shigeru Ishiba on this issue is more complicated. Ishiba criticizes Abe, saying there will be a serious contradiction between the new provision and original provision of the second paragraph. Therefore, Ishiba insists that either the second paragraph be removed from Article 9 or the amendment of the pacifist constitution be delayed.
Although there are obvious disputes on the amendment of the pacifist constitution between Abe and Ishiba, it is almost impossible for Ishiba to use this issue as a chance to defeat Abe. Inside the LDP, the majority of politicians, especially the congressmen in the Diet, are dissatisfied with the pacifist constitution.
There has been unanimous political support for amending Article 9 in recent years.  However, removal of the second paragraph of Article 9 from the constitution is seriously disputable in both Japanese society and the international community, as the second paragraph has always been regarded as a principal legal guarantee that Japan will maintain its pacifist state identity. As a result, such removal from the constitution will encounter strong opposition both in Japan and all over the world.
Against this backdrop, although Abe and many other LDP politicians are eager to amend Article 9, they have to make some compromise between their political ambitions and reality. In the eyes of Abe and many other LDP politicians, Ishiba’s proposal on this issue is rather rigid: either too cautious to delay the amendment of the pacifist constitution or too risky to remove the second paragraph from Article 9.
However, regardless of the disputes between Abe and Ishiba, even if the pacifist constitution is amended in Abe’s way and a new provision acknowledging the Self Defense Forces as Japan’s national armed forces is inserted in Article 9, it will be a big step forward in Japan’s remilitarization. As there are always advocates among the many Japanese politicians for reversing the postwar verdicts on Japan's war crimes, any amendment of the pacifist constitution may not be an end but a beginning to endangering regional and global peace.
Moreover, this year marks the 40th anniversary of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship, and bilateral relationships are improving. Amendment of Japan's pacifist constitution will surely do some harm to the mutual trust between China and Japan. To improve bilateral relations sustainably, it is necessary for politicians from both countries to conjure up sufficient political wisdom.