Experts: IMF cut in global growth outlook is sizeable

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06:02

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global growth forecasts for this year and next in its latest World Economic Outlook report. Experts said that downward revision is sizeable and significant.

The IMF said it now expects a 3.7 percent growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from 3.9 percent in both years in its April report.

CGTN Photo

"0.2 percentage point out of 3.9 percent is not an insignificant number. It's quite a sizeable cut I think. That cut, as Mr. Maurice Obstfeld (IMF's Chief Economist) said, is mostly because of the trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world," said Professor John Gong from University of International Business and Economics.

"Pressure on the inflation side will cause an interest rate hike in the US, tightening of foreign exchanges among the emerging markets, and some problems for developing countries caused by a stronger US dollar......these forces combined are contributing to this quite significant forecast of growth drop," the Professor explained.

The growth forecast for emerging market and developing economies was marked down 0.2 percent this year and 0.4 percent in 2019. The main source for the drop was the negative impact of the trade war on China and other economies in emerging Asia.

06:56

Hong Hao, Head of Research at the Bank of Communication International, said China now is of great significance for all these emerging economies. "So, if China is slowing down and facing challenges from the trade war with the US, then other emerging markets will find it very difficult to perform as well," Hong warned.

The IMF also reported that the financial market conditions could tighten "rapidly" if trade tensions and policy uncertainty intensifies. "We've already seen that in Turkey and Argentina. It's already happening," Gong said, adding that the situation would fast sweep to other economies in South America.

CGTN Photo

Hong shared similar concerns. "Some emerging markets getting into trouble this round are those that took advantage of the low US interest rate environment from the past couple of years. They borrowed heavily in US dollars in the very low rate environment. Now as the US dollar is strengthening as well as the US interest rate is rising, it posts substantial challenges for those countries," Hong told CGTN.

The IMF left 2018 growth forecast for China unchanged, at 6.6 percent, and cut the country's 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent. It said growth in China will remain strong, but is projected to decline gradually.

China's economic growth is decelerating, however, Hong doesn't worry excessively about the country's economic potentials. "If you look at NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) economic data, I don't think there is much to worry about. I think the economic growth is decelerating in a very orderly speed......the overall economic performance is stable," Hong said.

"Overall, the total amount of growth is not the big problem," Hong noted, stressing that structure of growth should be the key problem. And Gong shared his concern with CGTN by saying "I think we are already into the late stage of economic cycle. My hope is that we are not going to move directly or rapidly into a recession mode."