Will EU take a firm stance on Iranian nuclear issue?

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Europe

Editor's note: Marwan Yassir is a senior political analyst from the Middle East. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The second round of the renewed US sanctions on Iran will take effect on November 4. US president will bear the consequences alone.

The European Union (UN) will not be able to take a firm stance on the Iranian nuclear issue, as Iran will not let the EU move away from the country and closer to the US. The EU will thus take diplomatic positions that will not completely please the US.

The multiple factors of influences in the US, including the power of President Trump and the Senate, are the first weakness in confronting Iran. Public opinions in the US will not support the president for a long time. In comparison, the Iranian president enjoys greater freedom as Iran's security services can maintain the regime's ability to silence the opposition.

Iran's President Hassan Rouhani speaks at a news conference on the sidelines of the 73rd session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York, US, September 26, 2018. /VCG Photo

The proposed sanctions against Iran by no means reflect the common will of US allies. It is impossible for them to be hostile to Iran.

There is no doubt that Iran can exploit the situation as the US appears to have been isolated on this issue. Iran is also able to benefit from the many points of contention between the EU and the US, as well as those between the latter and non-ally countries of the US, such as Russia and China

"Washington is isolated among its allies in its confrontation with Iran," said Iranian President Hassan Rowhani, in his latest statement based on the reality of the conflict of interests between the US and other countries. This is not a hollow statement, but one that dictates ground-based interests. Although some observers tend to view it as something for local consumption.

The EU will not take a position that fully benefits the US, but hurts the interests of the EU.

Russia will not leave the stadium blank for the US. Here we may see the beginning of a global change when Saudi Arabia approached Russia; its timing was after Khashoggi's crime. The royal family would no longer be the most important ally of the US after the Khashoggi incident.

The Saudi royal family recently adopted a diplomatic approach, but no doubt, similar approach launched by Russia, perhaps some time ago or even by the former Soviet Union a long time ago.

The assassination of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has a big impact on how the international community views Saudi Arabia now. All the evidence suggests that the order to kill Khashoggi was from by the top of the Saudi government

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (R) shakes hands with the EU's Climate Action and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete as they meet in the capital Tehran on May 20, 2018. /VCG Photo

Perhaps we should expect to see, to what extent, Russia welcomes this call for rapprochement. We could then witness the sponsorship by Russia for the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a prelude to the mitigation of the Saudi-Iranian conflict.

The potential rapprochement of the Saudi Arabia and Iran would constitute an erosion of the foundation of the initiative of the American president to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement announced in May 2018, further undermining the impact of reimposed sanctions.

Isn't protecting Saudi Arabia part of the goal of the White House's campaign against Iran? Will the campaign continue after Khashoggi's case? Hasn't it caused a headache for the US and its allies, who are also in an economic and political alliance with Saudi Arabia?

It is wrong to think that the impact of sanctions imposed by the US on Iran would be limited to the US and the EU. Many other countries are trying to protect their interests with Iran. In the long run, the US cannot afford to lose good relations with so many countries.

(Cover Photo: This combination of pictures created on July 23, 2018 shows US President Donald Trump (L) speaking during a cabinet meeting on July 18, 2018, at the White House in Washington, DC and a handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency shows President Hassan Rouhani giving a speech on Iranian TV in Tehran on May 2, 2018. )

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