Editor's note: Martin Jay is an award-winning journalist based in Beirut. His career as a foreign correspondent includes working for several major international media outlets. The article reflects the author's opinion, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
There seems to be a great deal of fantasizing going on at the moment between the Saudis, the Turks and the Americans in how to remanufacture the events so that the Khashoggi affair can be contained.
In both Turkey and Saudi Arabia, this lugubrious practice of preparing packages of ‘perceived truth' is entirely acceptable and is really what dominates the news agenda there.
Yet aside from the histrionics of what is clearly a deal of some sort being made between these two regional powers, there is a positive outcome of the alleged murder of Khashoggi, which will both immortalize him and shatter Trump's craven agenda of keeping the Middle East unstable.
The Khashoggi affair could kick-start a process here where old enemies start to talk and cooperate as it, at the very least, questions whether Iran and Saudi Arabia really are such diligent, sworn foes, or merely neighbors who misunderstand one another.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Saudi Arabia to confront officials about the suspicious disappearance of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. He met in Riyadh with the King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, October 16, 2018. /VCG Photo
Let's start with Saudi Arabia's relations with Turkey. Until now, Turkey in many ways was Saudi Arabia's biggest enemy as, this secular yet modern Sunni country had ambitions of its own about being a regional power while being friendly with the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran.
And yet, the Khashoggi murder has pulled the Saudis and the Turks together. Could these two powerhouses though look at one another as a vehicle to self-enrichment, bypassing superpowers' restraints? Could they distance themselves from Washington?
Both countries have a lot in common after all, while Turkey is showing the Saudis that it can be less dependent on the Americans to fulfill its own geopolitical goals while signaling to Riyadh that it is the perfect ally.
The problem with the Saudis is that they are addicted to American hegemony and, in the case of Mohammad bin Salman, indebted to Trump, for supporting him as Crown Prince.
But the recent threats, if they are real from Trump, to "punish" Riyadh might bring an abrupt end to the honeymoon and see the 110 billion US dollars arms deal being curtailed. The Saudis have a track record of not paying up on weapons deals and this may well happen in the coming weeks if Trump comes under ridicule and is further mocked by US journalists who, in reality, he fears.
And anyway, the 110 billion US dollars arms deal which Trump heralded as his own achievement for blue-collar workers was largely Obama's; in reality, Trump fudged the figures and came up with the number, knowing the US media wouldn't check too hard. Since Trump came to office, the Saudis have only spent about four to five billions US dollars on the US weaponry. It's unclear what was pledged, but experts say it is nowhere near 110 billion US dollars.
Crime scene tape blocks off the area near the residence of Consul General of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul, Turkey, October 16, 2018. /VCG Photo
But five billion US dollars still buys you a lot of friends. If we are to assume that this same amount is rumored to have been offered to the Erdogan administration by the Saudis – and is accepted – then other areas of cooperation could flourish.
Turkey needs Saudi investment and, in turn, the Turks have something which the Saudis need even more: diplomacy. It is not far-fetched in the slightest to assume that President Erdogan, who revels in the idea of being a Middle East peace Tsar, will suggest to the Saudis at some point that he should be a mediator in their dispute with Qatar.
And when relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia are restored, inevitably, the Saudis will see how Turkey can be a negotiator to other problems. If the mercurial Erdogan plays this card it's only a question of time before he will try and build a bridge between Iran and Saudi Arabia as if both countries used the money they spend to ‘defend' themselves from one another on jobs and infrastructure, then the MBS 2030 vision will really happen.
The Khashoggi affair should at least show the Saudis that their friendship with the US is folly and that the Americans need them to galvanize instability in the region, as Iran is not really a threat, but a regional power they should do business with.
Turkey is a friend who seeks payment for its time and proximity, yes, but also stands to profit from peace in the region, rather than Trump, who is really just a war profiteer. Maybe the best thing that can happen in the region is that Trump goes ahead with his ‘punishment' although playing the role of Saudi chief fake newsagent in DC might push him onto his own sword anyway.
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