According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 22,283.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2018, an increase of 9.9 percent year on year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the first six months of this year.

During an interview with CGTN's Global Watch, Qu Qiang, assistant director of the International Monetary Institute at Renmin University of China, expressed optimism toward the influence of US tariffs on Chinese goods. While numbers can reflect the trade situation, Qu believes more in people's real demand.

China is the largest world factory. Eighty percent of toys are made in China, and so are 90 percent of cigarette lighters. That reflects the huge need all over the world for products that are made in China. “Do you think that the price up and down a little bit will impact the demand so dramatically? We don't think so. People need those things day by day,” said Qu.

Additional support for his optimism comes from China's diversified trade structure. In the past, the major export target was the United States. However, China has diversified a lot with the Belt and Road Initiative. Qu noted that the margin loss caused by tariffs will be supplemented by European or Japanese partners, as well as partners of other countries.

Unfortunately, however, it seems the US is being impacted. China's trade surplus with the US hit 34 billion US dollars in September. The US debt has risen to nearly 780 billion US dollars in 2018, a six-year high. Qu believes that it is the American people that suffer from the Trump administration's tariffs.

There is no doubt that the US actually needs China's lower-priced products. These products are not like financial products, which people can speculate on. By lowering the prices of Chinese goods, it is actually helping its own customers. In that way, American consumers will have more money in their pockets and enjoy more diversified products.

“The American people are not stupid,” said Qu. When they see that their president is putting tariffs on Chinese goods, they see the tendency of a rise in prices. American importers are importing more before tariffs take effect so that they can stock more products in the US. As a consequence, when Christmas comes around, American importers will dump their products so that prices will not go up that dramatically. The market has its own way of adjusting to the fluctuation.

Qu thinks trade tensions and tariffs will eventually unbalance the US economy. The trade surplus used to be distributed in equilibrium all over the world. Both China and the US have already reached the equilibrium, but the US has disturbed this balance by suddenly imposing tariffs. “The stock market of the US has already reflected this tension,” he said.