Theresa May's Brexit deal is in no man's land

World
Europe

Editor's note: Tom Fowdy is a UK-based political analyst. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

After hours of intense negotiating, British Prime Minister Theresa May's cabinet has given its support to a draft agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The agreement sets out many of the terms of Britain's future arrangement with the EU, including the “divorce settlement” that is owed to the institution, new customs arrangements, terms of future migration between the two parties and the Northern Ireland border issue.

The document proposes that the UK will exit via a 21-month “transition” arrangement with the Union, wherein many European laws and regulations will continue to apply.

The UK government has described the deal as “pragmatic,” with Brussels negotiators describing it as in “both sides' interests.”

British Prime Minister Theresa May makes a statement outside 10 Downing Street in London after presenting a Brexit deal to Cabinet. /VCG Photo.

However, all is not well. Although the deal may be described as a positive achievement given months of speculation and uncertainty, few are happy with it and even less are convinced. Rather being triumphant in her proposed deal, Theresa May now finds herself lost in no man's land.

Cornered by her party's right wing, on one hand, attacking the arrangement as a sell-out, and facing off against her opponents who see the deal as jeopardizing the UK's national interests on the other, the proposals face a gruesome challenge in surviving the crossfire of the commons.

The first and foremost problem the draft deal faces is Theresa's own party. If the Conservative party was unified on Brexit, then the parliamentary vote might not be a problem. However, that is not the reality Downing Street is facing.

Anti-Brexit pro-Europe demonstrators wave European Union and Union Jack flags and placards in Westminster opposite Downing Street on the day the Prime Minister takes her draft Brexit deal to gain backing from her Cabinet in Westminster on November 14, 2018 in London, England. /VCG Photo.

For the past two years, May has been running two parallel sets of Brexit negotiations, one with Brussels, and the other with her own party. The proposed agreement with the EU has almost immediately been rubbished by the party's right wing Brexiters who have branded it a sell-out, a betrayal and in the words of Jacob Rees-Mogg, “rotten.”

A reported nine ministers within the Cabinet itself are dissatisfied, despite their outward endorsement. Such critics of the deal perceive that the arrangement does not sufficiently guarantee an adequate return of UK sovereignty from Brussels, with the long transitional period being viewed as unacceptable in that area.

The right-wing press, including The Sun and the Daily Telegraph, have similarly portrayed the deal as a capitulation to Europe's demands. As a result, a reported 40 MPs in the Conservative Party may be plotting against May in some form, potentially even contemplating a vote of no confidence against the prime minister.

If Theresa May cannot command the full support of her party, she will find no favors in the rest of the commons. The Labour Party has quickly set out their opposition to the proposals, saying it fails their “six Brexit texts” for the preservation of the UK's national interest, subsequently branding it “Brexit chaos”. It is highly likely they will move to vote against the deal.

Similarly, as will the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats. Many MPs within these aforementioned parties are already calling for a second referendum on Brexit itself, which closes down space for compromises all sides can agree upon.

Even the Democratic Unionist Party, whom Theresa has relied upon to prop her government, is not happy with the arrangement concerning Northern Ireland. Consequentially, many are doubtful such a deal can possibly make it through the commons. It does not satisfy leavers or remainers alike.

Nevertheless, despite the mounting odds against her, Theresa May remains adamant that it is her way or the highway. In the face of near-unanimous criticism, her speech laid down the gauntlet by setting out that it is either this deal, no deal or no Brexit at all.

Her rhetoric may be viewed as a warning to the Eurosceptic wing of the party that if they push too much and seek to bring down her premiership, then the result could well be a Corbyn government and a termination of Brexit altogether.

Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for the European Union (EU), listens to a question during a news conference in Brussels, Belgium, on Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2018. ‍/VCG Photo.

However, this is unlikely to serve as a strong enough deterrent to prevent a leadership challenge within the party itself. If a considerable number believe May's deal is doomed to begin with, then some will certainly fancy their chances in forcing Brussels back to the table with a heightened threat of no deal.

Therefore, attacked from all angles, Theresa May's proposed Brexit has a political mountain to climb. Not only is the future of the United Kingdom uncertain, but her own political future is likewise hanging in the balance.

The frontline is not so much the House of Commons, but, as it has always been, her own party. She must convince an unwilling and strongly dissatisfied party to back her, otherwise its very much back to square one.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)